Erokspor - Fatih Karagumruk prediction 19 September 2026

Erokspor vs Fatih Karagumruk prediction: the 1st League match on Sep 19, 2026 at 17:00 sees Erokspor as the narrow favorite with a 42% win probability, while Fatih Karagumruk has a 27% chance and the draw sits at 31%. Bookmakers also lean toward the home side, but recent form makes this a closer call than the odds suggest.

Team Form

Erokspor are without a win in their last five matches, recording three draws and two losses. They drew 2-2 with Bursaspor, 0-0 with Bodrumspor, and 1-1 with Umraniyespor, while losing 0-3 to Kayserispor and 0-1 to Igdir Belediyespor. That form is a real concern for a team hosting a league opponent.

Fatih Karagumruk have been slightly more stable, with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five. They beat Bursaspor 2-1, drew 1-1 with Manisa BBSK, Kayserispor, and Istanbulspor, and lost 3-4 to Batman Petrolspor. Their attack has produced goals in most games, but away results remain mixed.

Head-to-Head Record

Across four previous meetings, the head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: Erokspor have two wins and Fatih Karagumruk have two wins, with no draws. In the most recent clash on Dec 03, 2025, Fatih Karagumruk won 5-2 away in the Cup. Erokspor won the last league meeting 2-1 at home on Apr 09, 2025. The other results: Fatih Karagumruk 1-0 Erokspor on Dec 01, 2024, and Fatih Karagumruk 0-3 Erokspor on Nov 24, 2020.

League Table Positions

Fatih Karagumruk are 11th in the 1st League table with 9 points from 7 matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), scoring 10 and conceding 11. Erokspor are not listed in the top 12 of the provided standings, which suggests they are lower in the table. At home, Fatih Karagumruk rank 3rd with 8 points from 4 games (2 wins, 2 draws), while Erokspor are outside the home top eight. On the road, Fatih Karagumruk are also unranked in the away top eight.

Win Probability: Erokspor or Fatih Karagumruk?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, Erokspor has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 31%, and Fatih Karagumruk has a 27% chance. The raw bookmaker odds imply Erokspor around 46%, draw 30%, and Fatih Karagumruk 24% after removing the margin, but Erokspor's five-game winless run and Fatih's slightly better recent return adjust the home edge downward.

Erokspor are more likely to win, but not by a wide margin. The significant draw probability reflects Erokspor's three draws in five games and Fatih's three draws in five. Fatih Karagumruk cannot be ruled out given their head-to-head away wins and superior league position.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Erokspor as the favorite. The 1X2 odds range from 1.80 to 1.95 for an Erokspor win, 2.22 to 3.44 for the draw, and 3.33 to 4.00 for a Fatih Karagumruk away win. The best home odds are around 1.95, while Fatih Karagumruk can be backed at up to 4.00.

Based on the stats, this is likely to be a tight match. Erokspor have home advantage but poor recent form, so a low-scoring game with a draw as a live possibility looks realistic. The lean is Erokspor, but betting tips should account for a high draw risk.