Mardinspor - Fatih Karagumruk prediction 15 October 2026

The Mardinspor vs Fatih Karagumruk prediction points to a home win on Oct 15, 2026 in Turkey's 1st League. Based on odds, form and league positions, Mardinspor are the favorites with a 48% win probability, while the draw and an away win each stand at 26%.

Team Form

Mardinspor

Mardinspor's last five results: W, L, L, W, D. They beat Bursaspor 2-1 away, lost 0-1 at home to Kayserispor and 0-1 away at Igdir Belediyespor, beat Bodrumspor 1-0 at home, and drew 2-2 at Sivasspor. Over that run they scored 5 goals and conceded 5, showing mixed recent consistency.

Fatih Karagumruk

Fatih Karagumruk's last five matches: D, W, D, L, D. They drew 1-1 at home against Muglaspor, won 2-0 away at Erokspor, drew 1-1 home vs Manisa BBSK, lost 3-4 away at Batman Petrolspor, and drew 1-1 home vs Kayserispor. The side scored 8 goals but also conceded 7 in that period, with the 4-3 loss highlighting defensive vulnerabilities on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Mardinspor and Fatih Karagumruk. The head-to-head record shows zero wins for either side and zero draws, making this a first competitive encounter.

League Table Positions

In the 1st League overall standings, Mardinspor sit 6th with 15 points from 9 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, goal difference +5). Fatih Karagumruk are 10th with 13 points (3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses, goal difference +1). At home, Mardinspor rank 8th with 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss and a 4:2 goal record from 4 games. Fatih Karagumruk's home form is stronger (2 wins, 3 draws, unbetaen) but their away record is not among the league's top eight; overall they have conceded 12 times in 9 outings, hinting at defensive fragility that could be exploited by the hosts.

Win Probability: Mardinspor or Fatih Karagumruk?

Based on the odds, team form, league table positions, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities: Mardinspor win – 48%, draw – 26%, Fatih Karagumruk win – 26%.

The bookmakers make Mardinspor clear favourites (around 2.00 for a home win). They have the home edge, a higher position in the table, and a better recent points return. Fatih Karagumruk have drawn three of their last five and are lickely to stay compact, but Mardinspor’s organisation (only 6 goals conceded in 9 games) gives them the upper hand. A tight match is expected, with the hosts marginally more likely to carve out a win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds (first set): home win – 2.00, draw – 3.50, away win – 3.70. These numbers reflect Mardinspor’s status as the match favourite. Taking all stats into account, the most logical outcome is a home victory, but the high draw not unusual in this fixture could betraval a share of the points. Our pick: Mardinspor to win, with the 2.00 home odd offering value given the form guide.