| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| 4.33 | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| 4.20 | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| 4.40 | 3.65 | 1.65 | |
| 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
This FC Chernihiv vs Epicentr Dunaivtsi prediction is for the Cup match in Ukraine on Oct 28 at 13:00. Bookmakers make Epicentr Dunaivtsi the favorite, and based on odds plus team data, FC Chernihiv has a 25% win probability, the draw is 30%, and Epicentr Dunaivtsi has a 45% chance.
FC Chernihiv's last five results are D, L, W, W, L. They drew 0-0 at home with Agrobiznes Volochisk in the Persha Liga on Oct 23, lost 2-1 at Viktoria Nikolaevka on Oct 17, won 1-0 at Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk on Oct 11, won 4-2 at FC Trostianets in the Cup on Oct 6, and lost 3-2 at Poltava FC on Oct 2. That run produced eight goals scored and seven goals conceded.
Epicentr Dunaivtsi's last five results are L, D, L, D, L. They lost 1-2 to FC Kharkiv at home in the Premier League on Oct 24, drew 2-2 at Karpaty Lviv on Oct 18, lost 3-1 at Kolos Kovalivka on Oct 10, drew 0-0 at Bukovyna Chernivtsi in a friendly on Oct 3, and lost 0-2 to Livyi Bereh FC on Sep 19. They have scored four goals and conceded nine in this sequence and have not won in five matches.
Head-to-head data shows one previous meeting: FC Chernihiv beat Epicentr Dunaivtsi 3-2 on Oct 10, 2021 in League 2. In the overall H2H record, FC Chernihiv have one win, no draws and Epicentr Dunaivtsi have no wins.
The win probability calculation uses the available 1X2 odds as the base and adjusts for recent form, the head-to-head result and home advantage. The result is: FC Chernihiv win 25%, draw 30%, Epicentr Dunaivtsi win 45%. The total is 100%.
Key factors in the probabilities: the odds imply a clear away lean, especially from the bookmaker with 1.65 for Epicentr Dunaivtsi. However, FC Chernihiv's only home match in the sample was a 0-0 draw, and they have two wins in their last five. Epicentr Dunaivtsi have not won in five matches and have conceded nine goals, so the 45% away win probability is not a runaway call.
The available 1X2 odds are: FC Chernihiv 4.20, draw 2.30, Epicentr Dunaivtsi 2.00 from one bookmaker; and FC Chernihiv 4.40, draw 3.65, Epicentr Dunaivtsi 1.65 from another. A third line lists 1.10 for all outcomes and is not used in this prediction.
Based on the stats, the match prediction is an away win for Epicentr Dunaivtsi, but it is not a high-confidence call. The draw at 30% is also a live outcome, and FC Chernihiv at 25% should not be ruled out. Bettors looking at betting tips should compare odds carefully because the away odds vary from 1.65 to 2.00.
Overall, the most likely match outcome is an away win, but the form gap is not large enough to overlook FC Chernihiv. If you are looking for who will win this Cup tie, Epicentr Dunaivtsi are the probable winner, while the draw is a serious alternative.