Maccabi Ashdod - FC Holon Yermiyahu prediction 30 September 2026

Our Maccabi Ashdod vs FC Holon Yermiyahu prediction for this League Alef clash on September 30, 2026, at 18:00 points to a very tight contest. Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, the draw is the most probable outcome with a 35% chance, while Maccabi Ashdod holds a 34% win probability and FC Holon Yermiyahu 31%.

Team Form

Maccabi Ashdod come into this match without a win in their last five outings, recording four draws and one loss. Their most recent results include a 1-1 draw at Hapoel Hadera, a 2-2 home draw with Irony Bet Shemesh, and a 1-1 stalemate at FC Jerusalem. The only defeat in this run was a 1-2 home loss to Hapoel Herzliya. The team has scored in each of those five games but also conceded every time, highlighting a pattern of high-scoring draws.

FC Holon Yermiyahu’s last five matches show a more mixed picture: two wins, two draws, and one loss. They beat MK Kfar Saba 1928 1-0 at home, lost 1-3 away to Shimshon Tel Aviv, then secured another 1-0 home win over Hapoel Marmorek. The two draws were both goalless – at home to Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon and Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Malakhi. Notably, the away side kept three clean sheets in those five games, suggesting defensive solidity on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record heavily favours FC Holon Yermiyahu: 6 wins to Maccabi Ashdod’s 1, with 5 draws. Looking at the last five meetings, FC Holon Yermiyahu won twice (5-3 in April 2025 and 4-1 in December 2024), while the other three ended level (1-1 in December 2025, 0-0 in March 2024, and 1-1 in December 2023). Maccabi Ashdod have not beaten this opponent in any of those five clashes, and the aggregate score across those games is 11-6 in favour of the away side.

Win Probability: Maccabi Ashdod or FC Holon Yermiyahu?

After normalising the bookmaker odds to remove margins and adjusting for team form and H2H, we calculate the following win probabilities: Maccabi Ashdod 34%, draw 35%, FC Holon Yermiyahu 31%. The draw stands out as the single most likely result, reflecting Maccabi Ashdod’s run of four draws in five games and the high number of stalemates (5) in the 12 previous H2H encounters. FC Holon Yermiyahu’s superior H2H record and slightly better recent form (two wins) keep their chances close, but home advantage for Maccabi Ashdod balances the scales. Overall, this is a match where all three outcomes are realistic, with the draw holding a marginal edge.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Maccabi Ashdod as the narrow favourite: the best home win odds range from 2.30 to 2.49, the draw is priced between 2.10 and 3.33, and an away victory can be backed at 2.70 to 3.20. These odds imply a tight contest with no clear standout. Our prediction, based on the stats, is that a draw is the most probable outcome, but the margins are so fine that a one-goal win for either side would not be a surprise. For betting tips, the draw market offers value given the frequency of stalemates in both teams’ recent matches and their head-to-head history.