Kansas City Women - Bay FC Women prediction 3 October 2026

Kansas City Women vs Bay FC Women prediction for their NWSL Women clash on October 3, 2026. Based on the stats, Kansas City Women are the favorites with a 55% win probability, while Bay FC Women face an uphill battle on the road.

Team Form

Kansas City Women's last five matches: W, L, D, W, W. They beat Denver Summit Women 4-1 at home, lost 2-0 away to San Diego Wave Women, drew 2-2 at home with Orlando Pride Women, won 2-1 away at Bay FC Women, and won 3-2 at home against North Carolina Courage Women. That's three wins, one draw, and one loss, with 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their attack has been productive, especially at home.

Bay FC Women's last five: L, W, D, L, L. They lost 1-3 at home to Orlando Pride Women, beat Racing Louisville Women 2-0 at home, drew 2-2 away at Denver Summit Women, lost 0-2 away to Seattle Reign FC Women, and lost 1-2 at home to Kansas City Women. Only one win in five, with 6 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their form is poor, particularly on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met once before, on September 5, 2026, in the NWSL Women. Bay FC Women hosted and lost 1-2 to Kansas City Women. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for Kansas City Women, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Bay FC Women. The only previous encounter gives Kansas City Women a psychological edge.

League Table Positions

In the overall NWSL Women standings, Kansas City Women sit 7th with 41 points from 26 matches (12 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses). Bay FC Women are not in the top 12, indicating a lower position. Kansas City Women have been particularly strong at home: they top the home table with 9 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses from 13 home games, scoring 32 goals and conceding only 13. Bay FC Women's away form is not among the top 8, suggesting struggles on the road. The home/away contrast heavily favors Kansas City Women.

Win Probability: Kansas City Women or Bay FC Women?

Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities: Kansas City Women win: 55%, Draw: 25%, Bay FC Women win: 20%. The bookmakers' odds (home 1.95, draw 2.50, away 4.80) imply probabilities of 45.8%, 35.7%, and 18.5% after removing the margin. However, Kansas City Women's flawless home record (9 wins, 4 draws) and Bay FC Women's poor away form push the home win probability higher. The head-to-head win also supports Kansas City Women. Therefore, Kansas City Women are the clear favorites to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds around 1.88-1.95 for a Kansas City Women win, 2.48-2.50 for the draw, and 4.80-4.95 for a Bay FC Women victory. These odds reflect Kansas City Women's status as the favorite. Based on the stats, a home win is the most likely outcome. Our prediction: Kansas City Women to win.