FC Tallinn - FC Maardu prediction 10 September 2026

The FC Tallinn vs FC Maardu prediction for this Esiliiga match on Sep 10 at 14:30 points towards an away win. Based on the available data, FC Maardu has a 45% chance of winning, a draw sits at 26%, and FC Tallinn has a 29% probability of victory.

Team Form

FC Tallinn's recent form is poor, with just one win in their last five matches (W, L, L, D, L). Their latest result was a 2-1 away victory against Viimsi MRJK on Sep 03, but they suffered a 0-2 home loss to JK Nomme Kalju 2 on Aug 29. FC Maardu, in contrast, has been in strong form with four wins in their last five (W, W, W, L, W). They secured a 2-1 home win against Nomme United 2 on Sep 06 and a 4-2 home win over Levadia Tallinn II on Aug 29.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favors FC Maardu. In their last four meetings, FC Maardu has won twice, with two matches ending in draws. FC Tallinn has not won any of these encounters. The most recent clash on Aug 15, 2026, saw FC Maardu win 1-0 at home. Earlier this season, on May 28, the teams played a 0-0 draw at FC Tallinn's ground.

League Table Positions

In the Esiliiga overall standings, FC Maardu is 5th with 41 points from 27 matches, while FC Tallinn is 8th with 28 points. The 13-point gap highlights the difference in performance this season. At home, FC Tallinn is 8th with 16 points from 13 games. FC Maardu's away form places them 5th with 15 points from 13 matches, showing they are more capable on the road than FC Tallinn is at home.

Win Probability: FC Tallinn or FC Maardu?

Calculating the win probability, we use the available odds as a base and adjust for form and head-to-head records. The bookmaker odds imply a raw probability that, after removing the margin, gives FC Maardu a clear edge. FC Maardu has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and FC Tallinn has a 29% chance. FC Maardu's superior recent form and unbeaten head-to-head record against FC Tallinn are the key factors making them the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this match are: FC Tallinn home win at 2.75, a draw at 3.95, and an FC Maardu away win at 2.00. Bookmakers see FC Maardu as the favorite. Based on the stats, including FC Maardu's strong form and dominant H2H record, the prediction is an away victory for FC Maardu.