Nomme United 2 - FC Maardu prediction 25 October 2026

Our FC Maardu vs Nomme United 2 prediction for the Esiliiga clash on Sep 06, 2026, at 09:30 points to a home win. FC Maardu are the favorites with a 48% win probability, while Nomme United 2 have a 28% chance of pulling off an upset. The match is a crucial mid-table battle in the Estonian second tier.

Team Form

FC Maardu have shown mixed form in their last five league outings, recording three wins and two losses. They cruised to a 4-2 home win over Levadia Tallinn II on Aug 29 and followed it with a convincing 3-1 away victory at Tallinna Kalev on Aug 24. However, a 0-1 defeat at Elva on Aug 20 and a 1-2 home loss to Viimsi MRJK on Aug 08 exposed some defensive frailties. A 1-0 home success against FC Tallinn on Aug 15 keeps them in the promotion hunt.

Nomme United 2, on the other hand, are struggling, managing just one win in their last five matches. They lost 0-1 at home to Elva on Aug 30, were thrashed 1-4 at Viimsi MRJK on Aug 24, drew 1-1 at FC Tallinn on Aug 20, beat JK Nomme Kalju 2 2-0 at home on Aug 17, and fell 1-2 to Levadia Tallinn II on Aug 08. That’s only four points from a possible 15, highlighting their inconsistency.

Head-to-Head Record

FC Maardu have historically dominated this fixture, winning four of their six meetings, with one draw and one win for Nomme United 2. The most recent clash, on May 09, 2026, saw FC Maardu win 2-1 at home. However, Nomme United 2 claimed a shock 4-1 home victory on Mar 08, 2026. In the 2025 Esiliiga B season, FC Maardu won 3-2 and 2-0 at home, and drew 3-3 away. The head-to-head record clearly favors the hosts.

League Table Positions

In the Esiliiga overall standings, FC Maardu are 5th with 38 points from 26 games (11 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses). Nomme United 2 sit 8th with 27 points (7 wins, 6 draws, 13 losses), a gap of 11 points. The home table ranks FC Maardu 3rd, with 23 points from 13 home matches (7-2-4), while Nomme United 2 are 8th in the away table, collecting only 12 points from 13 away trips (3-3-7). This home vs away contrast is a key factor in the prediction.

Win Probability: FC Maardu or Nomme United 2?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: FC Maardu 48%, draw 24%, Nomme United 2 28%. The bookmakers’ implied odds give FC Maardu a 44% chance, but their strong home form (3rd in home table) and Nomme United 2’s poor away record (8th) justify an upward adjustment. The head-to-head edge further boosts the hosts’ chances. Therefore, FC Maardu have a significantly higher probability of winning this match.

FC Maardu vs Nomme United 2 Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match 1X2 odds are: FC Maardu win at 2.02, draw at 3.95, and Nomme United 2 win at 2.65. Bookmakers clearly see FC Maardu as the favorite. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a home win for FC Maardu. However, Nomme United 2 have scored 25 away goals this season, so they could threaten. Our prediction: FC Maardu to win, but a draw is not out of the question.