Poltava FC - FC Chernihiv prediction 2 October 2026
Poltava FC
FC Chernihiv
Polissya Zhytomyr 2Poltava FCPoltava FCPrykarpattya Ivano-FrankivskProbiy GorodenkaPoltava FCPoltava FCFC ChernihivFC KulykivPoltava FCPoltava FCMetalist KharkivLokomotiv KyivPoltava FCPoltava FCInhuletsFC Kolos Kovalivka 2Poltava FCPoltava FCFK UCSAYarud MariupolPoltava FCPoltava FCNyva TernopilAgrobiznes VolochiskPoltava FCEpicentr DunaivtsiPoltava FCPoltava FCDynamo KyivFC ChernihivAgrobiznes VolochiskViktoria NikolaevkaFC ChernihivPrykarpattya Ivano-FrankivskFC ChernihivFC TrostianetsFC ChernihivPoltava FCFC ChernihivMetalist KharkivFC ChernihivFC ChernihivInhuletsFK UCSAFC ChernihivFC ChernihivNyva TernopilOleksandriaFC ChernihivFC ChernihivPolissya Zhytomyr 2Probiy GorodenkaFC ChernihivFC ChernihivFC KulykivLokomotiv KyivFC ChernihivLivyi Bereh FCFC ChernihivPoltava FCFC ChernihivFC ChernihivPoltava FCPoltava FCFC ChernihivFC ChernihivPoltava FCPoltava FCFC Chernihiv| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoria Nikolaevka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17:10 | +7 | 25 |
| 2 | Poltava FC | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 24:11 | +13 | 24 |
| 3 |  Yarud Mariupol | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20:13 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 |  Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 19:11 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Agrobiznes Volochisk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19:14 | +5 | 23 |
| 6 |  FC Kulykiv | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 26:17 | +9 | 21 |
| 7 |  Nyva Ternopil | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:11 | +4 | 18 |
| 8 |  Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17:16 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13:16 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 |  Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13:15 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13:16 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 |  FK UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  FC Kolos Kovalivka 2 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12:22 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | FC Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 |  Probiy Gorodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12:32 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 |  Polissya Zhytomyr 2 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 18:27 | -9 | 8 |
Poltava FC vs FC Chernihiv Prediction (Oct 2, 2026)
The Poltava FC vs FC Chernihiv prediction for this Persha Liga clash on October 2, 2026, gives Poltava FC a 62% chance of winning. The home side is heavily favored to take all three points against a struggling FC Chernihiv outfit, with kick-off set for 12:00 local time.
Team Form
Poltava FC have shown mixed form across their last five league matches (W-L-W-D-L). They lost 2-1 away to FC Kulykiv on September 26, beat Metalist Kharkiv 3-0 at home, fell 2-1 at Lokomotiv Kyiv, drew 0-0 at home with Inhulets, and won 1-0 away at FC Kolos Kovalivka 2. Their defence remains a strong point, conceding just five goals in nine league games.
FC Chernihiv are in poor shape. Their last five outings read L-D-L-W-L: a 2-0 away loss at Metalist Kharkiv, a 0-0 home draw with Inhulets, a 3-2 defeat at FK UCSA, a 1-0 home win over Nyva Ternopil, and a 1-0 loss at Oleksandria. Away from home they have lost all three of those recent road trips without scoring in two of them.
Head-to-Head Record
The teams have met four times in the Persha Liga, with Poltava FC winning two and drawing two. FC Chernihiv are yet to beat them. In the most recent encounter, on November 25, 2023, the match ended 2-2 at FC Chernihiv. Earlier that year, Poltava recorded a 2-0 home win, while in 2022 they won 1-0 away and drew 1-1 at home. The historical edge clearly sits with the home side.
League Table Positions
Poltava FC occupy 4th place in the overall standings with 15 points from nine matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). They have the joint-third best defensive record, with only 5 goals conceded. FC Chernihiv do not appear in the top 12 of the available table, indicating a position in the lower reaches of the league and consistent underperformance compared to their hosts.
Win Probability: Poltava FC or FC Chernihiv?
Based on recent form, head-to-head record, home advantage, and league positions, the calculated outcome probabilities are: Poltava FC win โ 62%, Draw โ 23%, FC Chernihiv win โ 15%. Poltavaโs solid defensive numbers and unbeaten H2H streak give them a major edge, while Chernihivโs dreadful away form (three straight league defeats on the road) makes an upset highly unlikely. A home win is the most probable result by a wide margin.
Odds & Match Prediction
No specific odds are currently available for this fixture. Nevertheless, statistical analysis overwhelmingly leans towards a Poltava FC victory. A low-scoring encounter is expected, given Poltavaโs defensive resilience and Chernihivโs struggles to find the net away from home. The safest prediction is a home win.
Poltava FC vs FC Chernihiv โ FAQ
- Who will win Poltava FC vs FC Chernihiv?
- Poltava FC are the most likely winners. The calculated probabilities are 62% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and just 15% for an FC Chernihiv upset, based on current form, head-to-head record, and league positions.
- What is the win probability for Poltava FC?
- Poltava FC have a 62% chance of winning. This high probability is driven by their strong defensive record (only 5 goals conceded in 9 league games), a perfect head-to-head record against Chernihiv (2 wins, 2 draws), and the visitorsโ poor away results.
- When is the Poltava FC vs FC Chernihiv match?
- The match takes place on October 2, 2026, at 12:00 local time. It is a Persha Liga fixture, the second tier of Ukrainian football.
- What are the odds for Poltava FC vs FC Chernihiv?
- Bookmakersโ odds are not yet available for this event. Based on form and statistics, Poltava FC would be clear favourites if odds were published, while a Chernihiv win would carry significantly longer odds.
- What is the head-to-head record between Poltava FC and FC Chernihiv?
- In four previous meetings, Poltava FC have won 2 and drawn 2. FC Chernihiv have never beaten Poltava. The last match, in November 2023, finished 2-2 at Chernihiv.