SV Darmstadt 98 - FC St. Pauli prediction 23 October 2026

The SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli prediction for this Bundesliga 2 match on October 23, 2026, at 17:30 points towards a closely contested encounter, with the home side holding a slight edge. Based on our win probability analysis, SV Darmstadt 98 has a 38% chance of winning, a draw is at 34%, and FC St. Pauli wins 28% of the time. The match will be played at the Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in Darmstadt.

Team Form

SV Darmstadt 98 enters this fixture with a mixed recent record, showing 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches across all competitions. Their most recent outing was a heavy 4-0 away defeat to Karlsruher SC on October 18. Before that, they secured back-to-back victories, including a 3-1 home win against Energie Cottbus on October 10 in the Bundesliga 2. FC St. Pauli's recent form is characterized by consistency, with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches. They are coming off a 1-1 away draw at Hannover 96 on October 17, extending their unbeaten run.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record between these two sides spans 14 matches, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning 7 and FC St. Pauli winning 5, while 2 matches have ended in a draw. The most recent encounter was on May 6, 2023, in the Bundesliga 2, where FC St. Pauli claimed a dominant 3-0 away victory at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor. Before that, the reverse fixture on October 29, 2022, finished 1-1.

League Table Positions

Looking at the Bundesliga 2 overall standings, FC St. Pauli sits in 7th place with 11 points from 8 matches played, having recorded 2 wins, 5 draws, and just 1 loss. SV Darmstadt 98 is not listed in the top 12 of the overall table provided, but their home form shows them in 8th place with 7 points from 4 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). FC St. Pauli's away record is not in the top 8 provided, but their home position of 7th with 7 points from 4 matches indicates relative stability.

Win Probability: SV Darmstadt 98 or FC St. Pauli?

Based on all available data, we have calculated the outcome probabilities for this match. SV Darmstadt 98 has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 34%, and FC St. Pauli has a 28% chance. These figures are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home win 2.89, draw 2.61, away win 2.49), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted to reflect SV Darmstadt 98's home advantage and superior head-to-head record. Despite FC St. Pauli having slightly shorter average odds and a more consistent recent run of form with fewer defeats, SV Darmstadt 98's home prowess and historical dominance in this fixture tilt the probability in their favor. SV Darmstadt 98 is the more likely winner, but a draw is a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering tightly clustered odds, reflecting the competitive nature of this fixture. The average prematch odds show a home win for SV Darmstadt 98 at around 2.89, a draw at 2.61, and an away win for FC St. Pauli at 2.49. The narrow differential, with the away side as a marginal favorite in the raw odds, underscores how even this contest is expected to be. Based on the stats and our probability model, the safest prediction is a Double Chance (1X), but SV Darmstadt 98's historical home record against FC St. Pauli makes them a tempting selection for a narrow home victory.