FCV Farul Constanta - UTA Arad prediction 11 September 2026

Looking for an FCV Farul Constanta vs UTA Arad prediction? This Liga I match on September 11, 2026, at 15:00 sees FCV Farul Constanta as the slight favorite according to bookmakers, but our probability model gives the draw a 45% chance, with Farul winning at 30% and UTA Arad at 25%. The hosts have drawn four straight league games, while the visitors arrive in strong form with three consecutive wins.

Team Form

FCV Farul Constanta's recent results are a string of draws. They have shared the points in each of their last four Liga I outings: 0-0 at CFR Cluj, 0-0 at home against FC Botosani, 1-1 at Sepsi OSK, and 1-1 at Champions Argesul Pitesti. Across all competitions, their last five matches read D-D-D-L-D, with the only loss coming in the Cup at FC Bihor Oradea. The team struggles to turn draws into wins, but they are also difficult to beat.

UTA Arad, in contrast, has found momentum. Their last five results are W-W-W-D-L, including a dominant 5-1 home win over Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc and an impressive 3-1 away victory at FCSB. The 0-0 draw with Corvinul Hunedoara on Aug 22 snapped a perfect run, but the side has clearly improved. This away form will give them confidence heading to Constanta.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these two sides heavily favors the stalemate. In 20 all-time meetings, the head-to-head record shows 3 home wins, 10 draws, and 7 away wins. The trend continues in recent encounters: the last five matches produced three draws and two UTA Arad victories. The most recent clash on Apr 26, 2026, ended 0-0. FCV Farul Constanta last beat UTA Arad in a league match back in the 2024–25 season, so the visitors have had the upper hand lately.

League Table Positions

FCV Farul Constanta sits 5th in the Liga I standings with 11 points from 8 games (2 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss). UTA Arad is not inside the top 12 of the table, which suggests they are further down the order. However, Farul's home form is not among the best in the division—they do not appear in the top 8 home table, indicating they have collected only a modest number of points at their own stadium. UTA Arad's away form is similarly unranked in the top 8, so both teams have room for improvement in their respective home/away splits. The league positions give Farul a nominal edge, but the gap is not wide enough to ignore recent performances.

Win Probability: FCV Farul Constanta or UTA Arad?

Our win probability calculation starts with the bookmakers' odds. The best available odds are 2.34 for a home win, 2.94 for the draw, and 3.20 for an away win. Removing the margin, the implied probabilities are roughly 40% for FCV Farul Constanta, 31% for the draw, and 29% for UTA Arad. However, we adjust these figures based on team form and head-to-head data. Farul's four consecutive league draws and the historical H2H record—where 50% of matches ended in a draw and away wins accounted for 35%—suggest the draw is undervalued by the odds. We therefore set the probabilities as follows: FCV Farul Constanta has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 45%, and UTA Arad has a 25% chance. The most likely outcome is a draw, followed by a narrow Farul win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds from three bookmakers show a range of 2.25–2.34 for a home win, 2.08–2.94 for the draw, and 3.05–3.20 for an away win. The very low draw odds (2.08 from one bookmaker) indicate that some market makers see the stalemate as a strong possibility. Based on the stats, our prediction is that the match will likely end in a draw. A 1-1 scoreline fits the pattern of Farul's recent results and the H2H history. The value may lie with the draw, but cautious punters could also consider the double chance for UTA Arad or the draw. Ultimately, FCV Farul Constanta's lack of wins and UTA Arad's away momentum point toward a tight, low-scoring affair.