Caykur Rizespor - Fenerbahce prediction 10 October 2026

The Caykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce prediction points towards an away victory when these two sides meet in the Turkish Super League on 10 October 2026 at 17:00. Home side Caykur Rizespor has struggled badly at Yeni Rize Şehir Stadı this season, while Fenerbahce’s superior head‑to‑head record and higher overall quality make them the clear favourites. Our numbers give Fenerbahce a 57% chance of winning, the draw 28%, and Caykur Rizespor only 15%.

Team Form

Caykur Rizespor have had a mixed run of late, collecting two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five outings (D W L W L). The wins came on the road – 2‑0 at Eyupspor and 2‑1 at Gaziantep FK – but their home form has been alarmingly poor. At the Yeni Rize Şehir Stadı this league season they have lost both matches, 0‑1 against Alanyaspor and 0‑2 versus Samsunspor, failing to score a single goal. That lack of home firepower will be a huge concern against a strong Fenerbahce side.

Fenerbahce enter this contest after a sequence of two wins, two draws and one loss (W W D D L). The emphatic 8‑0 demolition of Eyupspor stands out, but the 1‑2 home reverse to Besiktas and a 0‑0 draw at Gaziantep FK show they are not always at their best. In away league matches Fenerbahce have recorded one win, one draw and one loss, scoring three and conceding two; solid, if not spectacular, numbers that should be enough to handle a toothless Caykur Rizespor home attack.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The history of this fixture is one‑sided. Across the 20 previous meetings, Fenerbahce have won 17 times, Caykur Rizespor only twice, with one draw. The last five clashes underline the gulf: Fenerbahce won four (including a 5‑2 away victory in November 2025 and a 5‑0 home win in October 2023) and drew the most recent encounter 2‑2 at home in April 2026. Caykur Rizespor have not beaten Fenerbahce in any of those contests.

League Table Positions

Both teams have 10 points after six matches, but Fenerbahce sit sixth thanks to a far superior goal difference (16 scored, 6 conceded) compared with Caykur Rizespor’s ninth place (7 for, 6 against). Crucially, all of Caykur Rizespor’s points have come on their travels – they top the away table with ten points from four away games. At home they are still waiting for their first point and first goal. Fenerbahce’s away record of four points from three games (1‑1‑1) is respectable and more than enough to exploit the hosts’ home frailties.

Win Probability: Caykur Rizespor or Fenerbahce?

We calculate the match outcome probabilities by first looking at the bookmakers’ odds. Across the main markets, average 1X2 quotes are 4.50 for a home win, 2.40 for the draw and 1.91 for an away win. Removing the bookmaker margin gives an implied base probability of 19% for Caykur Rizespor, 36% for the draw and 45% for Fenerbahce. We then adjust these figures using the factors that matter most:

• Caykur Rizespor have lost both home league games, scoring 0 and conceding 3, so home advantage is effectively non‑existent for them.
• Fenerbahce have won 17 of the 20 previous meetings, showing a relentless dominance in this fixture.
• Fenerbahce sit higher in the overall table and have a significantly better goal record.

Factoring in these elements, our final win probability shifts further in favour of the away side: Caykur Rizespor 15% – Draw 28% – Fenerbahce 57%. Fenerbahce are the clear most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering odds in the range of 4.00 to 5.00 for a Caykur Rizespor victory, 2.38 to 2.46 for a draw, and 1.62 to 2.10 for an away win. The latest available quotes reflect Fenerbahce’s status as favourites. Based on the stats – the head‑to‑head record, Caykur Rizespor’s terrible home form and Fenerbahce’s away capability – the match prediction is an away win. Punters looking for betting tips will find value in backing Fenerbahce to win, while a draw cannot be entirely ruled out but carries a much lower probability.