Wellington Olympic Reserves - Ferrymead Bays prediction 3 October 2026

Wellington Olympic Reserves vs Ferrymead Bays prediction for the National League match on October 3, 2026, at 02:00. Based on odds and recent form, Wellington Olympic Reserves are the favorites with a 55% win probability. Ferrymead Bays have a 20% chance, while the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Wellington Olympic Reserves approach this game with strong momentum. Their last five results show four wins and one loss: a 2-1 win over Waterside Karori (Aug 29), a 2-0 away win at Wellington Phoenix Reserves (Aug 8), a 4-1 home win against Upper Hutt City Reserves (Aug 1), a 9-0 thrashing of Western Reserves (Jul 11), and a narrow 3-2 away defeat at Napier City Rovers Reserves (Jun 28). This run includes a heavy scoring output, notably the 9-0 victory.

Ferrymead Bays’ recent form is mixed. In their last five, they have three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their most recent match was a 0-0 home draw with Eastern Suburbs AFC in the National League on Sep 26. Before that, they beat Dunedin City Royals 2-1 (Aug 30), Nelson Suburbs 5-0 (Aug 22), lost 2-1 at home to Nomads United in the Southern League (Aug 8), and defeated Nomads United 2-0 in the Chatham Cup (Aug 4). Home form has been inconsistent, with only one clean sheet in the last four at their ground.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have never met before. The head-to-head record shows zero wins for Wellington Olympic Reserves, zero for Ferrymead Bays, and no draws. This makes form and odds the primary factors for the prediction.

Win Probability: Wellington Olympic Reserves or Ferrymead Bays?

After analysing available bookmaker odds and recent performances, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• Wellington Olympic Reserves win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Ferrymead Bays win: 20%

The base odds average around 1.65 for a home win, 2.88 for the draw, and 3.85 for an away win. Removing the bookmaker margin gave initial chances of 50/29/21. Wellington Olympic Reserves’ excellent form (4 wins in 5, many high-scoring) and home advantage push their probability to 55%. Ferrymead Bays’ inconsistency away from home reduces their chance. The draw remains a realistic outcome but less likely than a home victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds from multiple bookmakers (pre-match 1X2 market) show Wellington Olympic Reserves as clear favourites. The best available home win price is 1.60, with other offers ranging up to 1.75. Draw odds vary from 2.58 to 4.00, while Ferrymead Bays’ win pays between 3.20 and 4.20. These odds reflect the market’s confidence in the home side.

Prediction: Wellington Olympic Reserves to win. Based on the stats, their attacking form and home strength make them the most likely winner. A 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline appears plausible, but the handicap market could offer value given the odds. Ferrymead Bays will need to improve their away defensive record to cause an upset.