Finn Harps - Kerry prediction 2 October 2026
Finn Harps
KerryFinn Harps
Bray WanderersCork CityFinn HarpsFinn HarpsKerryTreaty UnitedFinn HarpsFinn HarpsLongford TownWexford FCFinn HarpsFinn HarpsAthlone TownUC DublinFinn HarpsFinn HarpsCobh RamblersBray WanderersFinn HarpsLongford TownFinn HarpsFinn HarpsCork CityKerryFinn HarpsFinn HarpsBray WanderersFinn HarpsTreaty UnitedKerryBray WanderersKerryCork CityCobh RamblersKerryFinn HarpsKerryKerryWexford FCAthlone TownKerryKerryBray WanderersLongford TownKerryKerryTreaty UnitedKerryUC DublinSligo RoversKerryCork CityKerryKerryCobh RamblersBray WanderersKerryKerryFinn HarpsFinn HarpsKerryKerryFinn HarpsFinn HarpsKerryKerryFinn HarpsFinn HarpsKerryFinn HarpsKerryKerryFinn HarpsFinn HarpsKerryKerryFinn HarpsFinn HarpsKerryFinn HarpsKerryKerryFinn HarpsFinn HarpsKerryKerryFinn Harps| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cork City | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 74:35 | +39 | 75 |
| 2 |  UC Dublin | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 67:51 | +16 | 56 |
| 3 |  Bray Wanderers | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 67:53 | +14 | 54 |
| 4 |  Kerry | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 45:41 | +4 | 52 |
| 5 |  Longford Town | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 49:46 | +3 | 52 |
| 6 |  Cobh Ramblers | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 46:54 | -8 | 49 |
| 7 |  Athlone Town | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 42:43 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 |  Wexford FC | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 44:58 | -14 | 42 |
| 9 |  Treaty United | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 37:53 | -16 | 42 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 36 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 33:70 | -37 | 28 |
Finn Harps vs Kerry Prediction (October 2, 2026)
The Finn Harps vs Kerry prediction for this First Division match on October 2, 2026 at Finn Park points to an away win. Kerry are the favorites with a 46% win probability, while Finn Harps have just a 22% chance of victory. The match kicks off at 19:45 in the Republic of Ireland's second tier.
Team Form
Finn Harps are in dreadful form, losing four of their last five matches. They fell 2-1 at Treaty United, lost 0-1 at home to Longford Town, beat Wexford FC 3-1 away, then lost 0-1 at home to Athlone Town and went down 5-4 at UC Dublin. That solitary win is their only bright spot in a run that leaves them bottom of the table.
Kerry have been more unpredictable but stronger overall. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W: a 1-0 home win over Wexford FC, a 3-0 defeat at Athlone Town, a 0-1 home loss to Bray Wanderers, a 1-0 win at Longford Town, and a 3-1 home win against Treaty United. Three wins in five gives them momentum coming into this clash.
Head-to-Head Record
In 13 previous meetings, Finn Harps lead with 5 wins to Kerry's 3, with 5 draws. However, recent encounters favour Kerry. The last five results are: Jul 24, 2026 โ Kerry 2-1 Finn Harps; May 8, 2026 โ Finn Harps 1-0 Kerry; Mar 20, 2026 โ Kerry 1-0 Finn Harps; Oct 13, 2025 โ Finn Harps 1-1 Kerry; Oct 3, 2025 โ Finn Harps 0-0 Kerry. Kerry have won two of the last three, with Finn Harps managing just one win in that span.
League Table Positions
Finn Harps sit 10th (last) in the First Division with 25 points from 33 matches (6 wins, 7 draws, 20 losses). They have conceded 66 goals, the worst defensive record in the league. Kerry are 6th with 45 points (12 wins, 9 draws, 12 losses). Away from home, Kerry rank 8th with only 3 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses from 16 matches, but they face a side that has struggled all season.
Win Probability: Finn Harps or Kerry?
Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league standings, the win probabilities are: Finn Harps 22%, Draw 32%, Kerry 46%. Bookmakers' implied odds (after removing the margin) suggested roughly 25% home, 39% draw, 36% away. We adjusted these numbers to reflect Finn Harps' terrible form, bottom placement, and Kerry's clear advantage in quality and recent H2H results. Even with Kerry's poor away record, the gap in class makes them the most likely winners.
Odds & Match Prediction
The best available pre-match odds show Finn Harps at 3.50, the draw at 2.25, and Kerry at 2.45. These prices mirror the market's view that an away win is slightly favoured over a home win, with the draw priced as the shortest option. Our final prediction: Kerry are the team most likely to take all three points, but a draw remains a plausible outcome. Finn Harps' chances of winning are low given their defensive frailties and overall form.
Finn Harps vs Kerry โ FAQ
- Who will win Finn Harps vs Kerry?
- Based on the analysis, Kerry have a 46% chance of winning, Finn Harps have a 22% chance, and the draw is rated at 32%. So Kerry are the most likely winners in this First Division matchup.
- What is the win probability for Kerry?
- Kerry have a 46% probability of winning. Their higher league position (6th vs 10th), better recent form (three wins in five), and head-to-head edge make them clear favourites against bottom-placed Finn Harps.
- When is the Finn Harps vs Kerry match?
- The match is on October 2, 2026, at 19:45 local time at Finn Park in Ballybofey. It is a Republic of Ireland First Division fixture.
- What are the odds for Finn Harps vs Kerry?
- Bookmakers have set odds of approximately 3.50 for a Finn Harps win, 2.25 for a draw, and 2.45 for a Kerry win. These odds are subject to change.
- What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Kerry?
- In 13 meetings, Finn Harps have won 5, Kerry have won 3, and there have been 5 draws. The last encounter on July 24, 2026 ended 2-1 to Kerry.