Finn Harps - Longford Town prediction 18 September 2026

Our Longford Town vs Finn Harps prediction for August 3, 2026, points to a home win in this First Division clash. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Longford Town enters the match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while Finn Harps faces an uphill battle at just 17%. The match kicks off at 16:00 at Longford Town's ground.

Team Form

Longford Town comes into this fixture in excellent shape, having won four of their last five matches. They beat Treaty United 1-0 away, lost narrowly 1-2 at home to Wexford FC, then thrashed Baldoyle United 8-0 in the FAI Cup, edged Cork City 4-3 away, and defeated UC Dublin 2-1 at home. That run of results shows both attacking firepower and resilience.

Finn Harps, by contrast, are struggling badly. They have lost four of their last five outings: a 0-3 home defeat to Cork City, a 1-2 loss at Kerry, a 0-1 home cup exit to Bray Wanderers, and a 0-1 home loss to Treaty United. Their only recent win was a 1-0 home success against Wexford FC. With just one victory in five, confidence is low.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Finn Harps have dominated this fixture with 15 wins to Longford Town's 4, alongside 8 draws. However, recent meetings have been tight. The last five encounters produced four draws and one Finn Harps win (1-0 at Longford Town in March 2026). The most recent clash, in May 2026, ended 2-2. This suggests that while Finn Harps have the historical edge, Longford Town are closing the gap and are tough to beat at home.

League Table Positions

Longford Town sit 4th in the First Division with 31 points from 23 games (8 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses). They have been strong at home, collecting 20 points from 11 matches (6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) and conceding only 9 goals. Finn Harps are rooted to the bottom in 10th place with 22 points from 24 games (5 wins, 7 draws, 12 losses). Their away form is even worse—they do not feature in the top eight of the away standings, highlighting their travel struggles.

Win Probability: Longford Town or Finn Harps?

After normalizing bookmaker odds (home 1.65, draw 2.20, away 4.55) to remove the margin, the implied probabilities are 47.3% for a Longford Town win, 35.5% for a draw, and 17.2% for a Finn Harps win. Adjusting for current form and league positions, we raise the home win chance to 55%, lower the draw to 28%, and keep the away win at 17%. Longford Town’s strong home record and Finn Harps’ poor away performances heavily tilt the balance. The head-to-head trend of frequent draws keeps the draw probability significant, but the form gap makes a home victory the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Longford Town as the clear favorite, with best odds around 1.65 for a home win. The draw is priced at approximately 2.20, and an away win for Finn Harps at 4.55. Based on the stats, our prediction is a home win. Longford Town’s superior form, home advantage, and Finn Harps’ struggles make the 1.65 odds an attractive option for bettors. However, the high frequency of draws in recent H2H meetings suggests a low-scoring affair could still end level, so backing the draw no bet or double chance might also be considered.