Treaty United - Finn Harps prediction 25 September 2026

The Treaty United vs Finn Harps prediction for September 25, 2026, points to a home victory in this Ireland Republic First Division clash at Markets Field. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Treaty United has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Finn Harps has a 20% chance. Bookmakers also see the hosts as the clear favorite.

Team Form

Treaty United come into this match with a mixed run of results: L, W, L, L, D in their last five outings. They lost 2-0 away to Bray Wanderers, beat Longford Town 2-0 on the road, then suffered back-to-back defeats against Wexford FC (0-1) and Kerry (1-3), before a 2-2 home draw with Cork City. The side has struggled for consistency, winning just once in that spell.

Finn Harps are in even worse shape, with a form line of L, W, L, L, L. Their only recent victory was a 3-1 win at Wexford FC. Otherwise, they lost 0-1 at home to Longford Town, 0-1 at home to Athlone Town, 4-5 away to UC Dublin, and 1-3 at home to Cobh Ramblers. Defensive frailties are evident, conceding 11 goals in those five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these sides is tight: Treaty United have 7 wins, Finn Harps 6, and there has been 1 draw. In the last five meetings, Treaty United won twice, Finn Harps won twice, and one ended level. The most recent encounters strongly favor Treaty United — they won 1-0 away in July 2026 and 3-0 at home in May 2026. That 3-0 victory at Markets Field is a clear indicator of what the hosts can do on their own turf.

League Table Positions

Treaty United sit 9th in the First Division with 33 points from 32 matches (8 wins, 9 draws, 15 losses). Finn Harps are bottom in 10th place, having collected only 25 points (6 wins, 7 draws, 19 losses). The eight-point gap reflects Treaty United's slight edge. At home, Treaty United have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses — a modest but respectable record. Finn Harps' away form is not detailed in the standings, but their overall goal difference of -35 (29 scored, 64 conceded) highlights major problems on the road.

Win Probability: Treaty United or Finn Harps?

After analyzing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Treaty United win — 45%, draw — 35%, Finn Harps win — 20%. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 2.19, draw 2.31, away 4.04) after removing the margin, then adjusted for recent form, head-to-head results, league position, and home advantage. Treaty United's superior league standing, home ground, and back-to-back wins in the last two H2H meetings tip the balance in their favor. A draw remains a strong possibility given both teams' inconsistency, but Finn Harps' poor defensive record makes an away win unlikely.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds from bookmakers show Treaty United at around 2.15–2.22 to win, the draw at 2.30–2.35, and an away victory for Finn Harps at 3.95–4.20. These odds imply a home win probability of roughly 40% before adjustments. Our prediction is a Treaty United win, but with a draw as a realistic alternative. Based on the stats, a 2-0 or 2-1 home victory is the most likely match outcome. Bettors looking for betting tips should consider the home win or the draw no bet market for added security.