Fiorentina - Pisa prediction 15 September 2026

The Fiorenina vs Pisa prediction for this Cup clash on Sep 15, 2026 at 19:00 local time gives Fiorentina a clear edge. Our win probability model puts the Serie A side at 58%, a draw at 28%, and Pisa at just 14%.

Team Form

Fiorentina's last five matches (all competitions): W, L, L, L, W. They beat Venezia 4–2 away in Serie A on Sep 11, then fell 1–2 at home to Torino and 0–3 to Frosinone. A 0–4 loss at Roma was followed by a 4–1 Cup victory over Benevento. Pisa comes in with L, W, W, L, D. A 1–4 home loss to Virtus Entella in Serie B on Sep 11 was preceded by back‑to‑back wins: 3–0 at Juve Stabia and 2–1 at home against Catanzaro. They also lost 0–1 to Padova and drew 1–1 with Empoli in the Cup.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The two sides have met twice recently in Serie A. Fiorentina won 1–0 at home on Feb 23, 2026, and a 0–0 draw occurred in Pisa on Sep 28, 2025. Pisa has never beaten Fiorentina (home wins 1, draws 1, away wins 0).

Win Probability: Fiorentina or Pisa?

Based on the latest bookmaker odds, adjusted for recent form and the head‑to‑head trend, our model assigns Fiorentina a 58% win probability, the draw 28%, and Pisa 14%. The odds imply a 56.4% home win, 31.9% draw, 11.7% away win when the margin is removed. We tweaked those numbers slightly in Fiorentina's favour because they dominate the H2H and compete in a stronger league, despite mixed recent results. The venue — Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa — technically strips Fiorentina of home advantage, but their quality still makes them the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Fiorentina as the strong favourite: home win odds range from 1.33 to 1.67, the draw sits between 2.52 and 2.86, and an away victory is a long shot at 5.75 to 9.80. Considering the stats, the best betting tip is to back a Fiorentina win, but the draw cannot be ruled out given Pisa's ability to hold them 0–0 in 2025. All signs point to a low‑scoring affair with Fiorentina likely to edge it.