Venezia - Fiorentina prediction 11 September 2026

The Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction for this Serie A clash on Sep 11, 2026, at 18:45 local time points to a tight contest with a slight home advantage. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Venezia has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Fiorentina has a 35% probability of taking all three points. The match will be played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.

Team Form

Venezia's recent home form has been poor. In their last five matches at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, they recorded one win and four losses. The only victory came in the Cup against Modena (3-2), while they suffered Serie A defeats to Lecce (0-2), AC Milan (0-2), Udinese (1-2, Cup), and Frosinone (2-3). The team is struggling defensively, conceding multiple goals in each of those losses.

Fiorentina's form across their last five matches is also concerning. They have lost three of the last five, including a 1-2 home loss to Torino, a 0-3 defeat at Frosinone, and a heavy 0-4 loss at AS Roma. Their only win came in the Cup against Benevento (4-1), and they drew 1-1 with Deportivo La Coruna in a friendly. The Viola have been leaky at the back, especially on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Venezia. In the last seven meetings between these sides, Venezia has won five times, Fiorentina twice, and there have been no draws. The most recent encounter, on May 12, 2025, ended in a 2-1 home win for Venezia. Notably, Venezia has won all three home matches against Fiorentina in the available data, keeping clean sheets in the two 1-0 victories prior to the 2-1 win. Fiorentina's only successes came at home, both by 1-0 scorelines.

Win Probability: Venezia or Fiorentina?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, and head-to-head statistics, the win probabilities are: Venezia 40%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 35%. The average odds from multiple bookmakers imply a 32% chance for a home win, 36% for the draw, and 32% for an away win. However, the head-to-head record shows no draws ever, and Venezia's perfect home record against Fiorentina pushes the home win probability higher. The current poor form of both sides adds uncertainty, but the home team's historical edge at this venue is the deciding factor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers from the provided odds see a very balanced match. One of the leading odds sets shows Venezia at 2.88, the draw at 3.55, and Fiorentina at 2.62. The low draw odds indicate a tight affair, but the head-to-head trend suggests a winner is likely. Based on the stats, Venezia's home dominance in this fixture and Fiorentina's defensive struggles on the road, the most probable outcome is a home win for Venezia. A draw cannot be ruled out given both teams' recent lack of form, but the value lies with the hosts.