Fiorentina Women - Sassuolo Women prediction 3 October 2026

Fiorentina Women vs Sassuolo Women prediction for the Serie A Women clash on Oct 3, 2026, at 14:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Fiorentina Women enter this match as clear favorites with a 60% win probability, while Sassuolo Women have just a 15% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Fiorentina Women come into this fixture with a mixed recent run of L, D, W, W, W in their last five outings. Their most recent league match ended in a 2-0 away defeat to Inter Milano Women on Sep 27, but prior to that they secured back-to-back Serie A wins against Lazio Women (2-1) and Genoa Women (3-2). The two friendlies in August saw a 1-1 draw with Manchester City Women and a 6-0 thrashing of Cesena Women, indicating decent attacking form.

Sassuolo Women, on the other hand, are struggling with a sequence of L, L, D, L, D. They lost 3-1 at home to As Roma Women in their league opener on Sep 27, and their only point in the last five matches came from a 1-1 draw at Napoli Women in May. Friendlies also brought a 4-2 loss to Cesena Women, so confidence is low heading into this away game.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides stands at 9 wins for Fiorentina Women, 1 draw, and 6 wins for Sassuolo Women from 16 meetings. In the last five encounters, Fiorentina have the upper hand with three victories, one draw, and one loss. The most recent clash on Feb 22, 2026, saw Fiorentina Women edge a 3-2 home win, while Sassuolo’s last success was a 1-0 home victory back in March 2024.

League Table Positions

Both teams are yet to get off the mark in the 2026/27 Serie A Women campaign. Fiorentina Women sit 11th with 0 points and a -2 goal difference after one match, while Sassuolo Women are 10th also with 0 points and a -2 goal difference. The table is tight at this early stage, but the hosts’ superior recent form and historical edge give them a significant advantage.

Win Probability: Fiorentina or Sassuolo?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds to remove the margin, the implied probabilities are approximately 52% for a Fiorentina win, 33% for a draw, and 15% for a Sassuolo win. Adjusting for Fiorentina’s stronger form (three wins in their last five), dominant head-to-head record at home, and the home advantage, we raise the home win probability to 60%, lower the draw to 25%, and keep the away win at 15%. Fiorentina Women have a 60% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Sassuolo Women have a 15% chance.

Fiorentina Women vs Sassuolo Women Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers heavily favor the home side, with odds for a Fiorentina Women win ranging from 1.44 to 1.53. The draw is priced between 2.30 and 3.90, while a Sassuolo Women victory pays out at 4.80 to 5.50. Based on the stats, Fiorentina Women are the most likely winners. The recommended betting tip is a home win, but the odds are short, so adding it to an accumulator or considering the -1 handicap could offer better value.