FK Osogovo Kocani - FK Belasica Strumica prediction 9 September 2026

The FK Osogovo Kocani vs FK Belasica Strumica prediction for this North Macedonia Cup clash on Sep 09 at 14:00 points to a tight contest. Based on win probability, FK Belasica Strumica enters as the favorite with a 42% chance to win, FK Osogovo Kocani has a 33% chance, and the draw sits at 25%. Bookmakers' odds and the head-to-head record underline the away team's edge.

Team Form

FK Osogovo Kocani's last five results show three wins and two losses (L, W, W, W, L). Their most recent match on Aug 22 was a 2-1 away defeat to KF Kamjani Kamenjane. Before that, they secured a 3-0 home victory over FK Sloga Vinica 1934 and back-to-back 4-2 wins against Detonit Plachkovica and its U23 side.

FK Belasica Strumica’s form displays two wins, one draw, and two losses (D, W, L, W, L). Their latest outing on Aug 30 ended in a 1-1 home draw with Detonit Plachkovica. A 1-0 away win at Novaci on Aug 22 and a 5-0 thrashing of FK Pobeda Ad Prilep in April highlight their potential, though a 2-0 friendly loss to Belasitsa Petrich and a 1-0 defeat at Skopje show some inconsistency.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors FK Belasica Strumica, who have won 5 of the 8 encounters. FK Osogovo Kocani has 2 wins, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent meeting on Oct 11, 2025, saw FK Osogovo Kocani win 3-1 at home in the 2nd League. However, the previous clash on Apr 12, 2025, ended 0-0. In 2022, FK Belasica Strumica won 3-0 at this venue. Overall, the away team has dominated this fixture historically.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in the North Macedonia 2nd League. While exact current table positions and points are not provided, recent form suggests both are mid-to-upper table sides. FK Osogovo Kocani's three wins in five games indicate a stronger recent run, but the head-to-head gap and odds imply FK Belasica Strumica is rated slightly higher overall.

Win Probability: FK Osogovo Kocani or FK Belasica Strumica?

FK Osogovo Kocani has a 33% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and FK Belasica Strumica has a 42% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the most balanced bookmaker odds (3.25 home / 2.10 draw / 2.62 away), normalizing to remove the margin, then adjusting for FK Belasica Strumica's dominant 5-2-1 H2H advantage and their slightly better away form. Home advantage for FK Osogovo Kocani narrows the gap, preventing a larger favorite spread.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see FK Belasica Strumica as the favorite, with away win odds as low as 1.57 in one market and around 2.60 in balanced books. Home win odds range from 3.00 to 3.30, and the draw sits between 2.10 and 3.86. Based on the stats, FK Belasica Strumica has the higher probability to advance, but the cup context and FK Osogovo Kocani's recent home win in the H2H keep this matchup competitive. The safest betting tip leans toward the away side or the draw.