Transinvest - FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction 24 October 2026

The Transinvest vs FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction for this A Lyga match on Oct 24 at 15:30 points to a clear home advantage. Bookmakers and recent stats both suggest Transinvest is likely to take all three points, with our win probability model giving them a 60% chance of victory. FK Hegelmann Litauen faces an uphill battle, with just an 18% probability of an away win.

Team Form

Transinvest enters this clash in strong shape. Their last five league results read D, W, W, L, W – a 3–1 win at Banga Gargzdai (Sep 14), a 3–0 home victory over Zalgiris Vilnius (Sep 19), a 3–0 home win against Siauliai Futbolo Akademija (Aug 24), and a thrilling 3–3 draw at Dziugas Telsiai (Oct 17). The only blip was a 1–2 home loss to Suduva Marijampole (Sep 6). Transinvest has scored 13 goals in these five matches, showing real attacking threat.

FK Hegelmann Litauen, on the other hand, is winless in five. Their sequence is L, D, D, L, D. A heavy 1–4 defeat at Zalgiris Vilnius (Oct 18) was followed by a 1–1 home draw with Suduva (Sep 20) and a 0–0 stalemate at Siauliai (Sep 13). They also lost 1–3 at home to Baltija Panevezys (Sep 7) and drew 2–2 at Dziugas Telsiai (Aug 31). With only three goals scored and nine conceded in this period, the visitors’ form is a major concern.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record across all competitions shows 5 home wins, 0 draws, and 3 away wins, underlining the value of home advantage in this fixture. In the most recent five meetings, Transinvest has won three and FK Hegelmann Litauen two. The latest encounter on Aug 2, 2026 saw Transinvest win 2–1 away. Prior to that, Transinvest beat FK Hegelmann 2–1 at home on May 29, 2026 and 2–0 in the Cup on May 20, 2026. FK Hegelmann’s wins came 3–1 at home on Apr4, 2026 and 1–0 away in the Cup on May 27, 2025. There has never been a draw between these sides.

League Table Positions

Transinvest sits 4th in the A Lyga overall standings with 46 points from 29 matches (13 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses). FK Hegelmann Litauen is 8th with 26 points from 30 games (4 wins, 14 draws, 12 losses). The home/away splits are even more telling. Transinvest ranks 5th in the home table, picking up 21 points from 14 home fixtures (6 W, 3 D, 5 L), while FK Hegelmann Litauen is 8th in the away table with only 11 points from 15 road trips (2 W, 5 D, 8 L). The 20‑point gap in overall points and the stark away form differential heavily favor the home side.

Win Probability: Transinvest or FK Hegelmann Litauen?

Based on the match odds (home 1.55, draw 3.75, away 4.60) and stripping out the bookmaker margin, the baseline probabilities are 57% for a Transinvest win, 24% for the draw, and 19% for an FK Hegelmann Litauen victory. Adjusting these for Transinvest’s superior recent form, the strong home advantage in H2H history, and the 20‑point league gap, we estimate the chances as follows:

• Transinvest win: 60%
• Draw: 22%
• FK Hegelmann Litauen win: 18%

In short, Transinvest has a 60% chance of coming out on top, making them the clear favourite for this matchup.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre‑match odds from bookmakers list home win at 1.55, a draw at 3.75, and an away win at 4.60. These prices confirm the market’s belief that Transinvest is the overwhelming favourite. Combining the odds with the form, H2H, and league position data, the most probable outcome is a Transinvest victory. Therefore, our Transinvest vs FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction is a home win, with the visitors unlikely to break their winless streak at this venue.