Ogre United - FK Progress Super Nova prediction 20 September 2026

The Ogre United vs FK Progress Super Nova prediction for this Virsliga match on September 20, 2026, at 11:00 UTC points to a clear away favorite. Based on recent form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, FK Progress Super Nova has a 60% chance of winning, a draw sits at 25%, and Ogre United has only a 15% probability of victory.

Team Form

Ogre United are struggling badly. Their last five matches have yielded just one point: a 2-2 home draw against Liepajas Metalurgs, followed by four straight defeats — 1-2 at Tukums 2000, 0-3 at home to Rigas Futbola Skola, 2-3 at home to Jelgava, and a 1-4 loss at Riga FC. They have conceded 14 goals in that run and look fragile at the back.

FK Progress Super Nova, in contrast, are in solid shape. Their last five results: a 1-0 home win over Tukums 2000, a 1-0 away win at Jelgava, back-to-back draws (1-1 at Auda, 0-0 home to BFC Daugavpils), and a 1-2 home loss to Liepajas Metalurgs. That’s two wins, two draws, and one loss — a much more stable run.

Head-to-Head Record

FK Progress Super Nova have dominated this fixture historically. In the last four meetings, they have won three times, with Ogre United winning once. The most recent clash on July 6, 2026, saw FK Progress Super Nova lose 1-2 at home, but they had won the previous three — including a 2-1 away win at Ogre United on April 3, 2026. No draws have occurred in this matchup, suggesting a result is likely.

League Table Positions

The Virsliga standings underline the gulf between these sides. FK Progress Super Nova sit 6th with 35 points from 29 games (10 wins, 5 draws, 14 losses). Ogre United are rock bottom in 10th place with just 15 points (3 wins, 6 draws, 20 losses) and a goal difference of -46. Notably, FK Progress Super Nova boast the 4th-best away record in the league, with 7 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses on the road, while Ogre United’s home form is among the worst — they are not even in the top eight of the home standings.

Win Probability: Ogre United or FK Progress Super Nova?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: FK Progress Super Nova win — 60%, draw — 25%, Ogre United win — 15%. This assessment is based on the away team’s superior form (W2 D2 L1 vs. D1 L4), a 3-1 head-to-head advantage, and a 20-point gap in the league table. FK Progress Super Nova’s strong away performances (50% win rate) contrast sharply with Ogre United’s overall win rate of just 10%. The lack of draws in past meetings slightly lowers the draw probability, but the visitors’ recent two stalemates keep it at a realistic 25%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this match are not currently available. However, based on all available stats, FK Progress Super Nova are the clear favorites to win. Bookmakers, when they release lines, are expected to price the away side as strong favorites. Our prediction: FK Progress Super Nova to win, with a likely correct score in the 1-0 or 2-0 range, given their solid defense away from home (only 14 goals conceded in 14 away games) and Ogre United’s scoring struggles.