Lietava Jonava - FK Tauras Taurage prediction 18 September 2026

The Lietava Jonava vs FK Tauras Taurage prediction for September 18, 2026, in the Lithuanian 1 Lyga points to an away win. Bookmakers and recent data give FK Tauras Taurage a 48% chance of victory, while the draw sits at 26% and a home win for Lietava Jonava at 26%.

Team Form

Lietava Jonava come into this match with a poor run of results. Their last five outings read L, D, W, L, L. Most recently, they lost 2-0 away to Neptunas Klaipeda on September 11. Before that, a 0-0 home draw against Dainava Alytus and a 2-1 win at FK Transinvest B offered brief respite, but back-to-back home defeats to FA Siauliai B (0-1) and FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 (1-2) highlight defensive frailties. Jonava have managed just one win in their last five, scoring only three goals in that span.

FK Tauras Taurage’s form is slightly better but still inconsistent: L, L, D, D, W. They lost 0-1 at home to Vilnius Zalgiris B on September 12 and suffered a 3-1 away defeat at Atmosfera Mazeikiai on September 5. Two consecutive draws—2-2 at home to BFA Vilnius and 1-1 at FK Babrungas Plunge—preceded a 1-0 away win at Garliava on August 15. The away side has only one victory in five, but they have been harder to beat on the road, picking up points in three of those five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours FK Tauras Taurage. In four previous meetings across all competitions, Tauras have won three times, with Lietava Jonava winning once and no draws. The most recent clash was on May 16, 2026, in the 1 Lyga, where FK Tauras Taurage secured a 2-0 home victory. Earlier in 2026, a friendly ended 3-0 to Tauras. Jonava’s sole win came at home on September 20, 2025, a 1-0 success. The overall H2H tally is 1 home win, 0 draws, 3 away wins.

League Table Positions

In the overall 1 Lyga standings, FK Tauras Taurage sit 7th with 40 points from 24 matches (12 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses). Lietava Jonava are 10th with 27 points (7 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses). The gap of 13 points underlines the visitors’ superiority this season. Looking at home/away splits, Jonava do not feature in the top eight home teams, while Tauras rank 7th in the away table with 15 points from 12 road games (4 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses).

Win Probability: Lietava Jonava or FK Tauras Taurage?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Lietava Jonava win: 26%
• Draw: 26%
• FK Tauras Taurage win: 48%

The probabilities are derived from the inverse of the 1X2 odds (home 3.35, draw 3.45, away 1.85), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted slightly to reflect FK Tauras Taurage’s superior league position and dominant H2H record. The visitors are the clear favourite, with nearly a one-in-two chance of taking all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current pre-match odds from bookmakers are: Lietava Jonava 3.35, Draw 3.45, FK Tauras Taurage 1.85. These prices confirm the away side as the strong favourite. Considering the stats, FK Tauras Taurage are the more likely winners. Their away form, while not spectacular, has been resilient, and they have already beaten Jonava twice this calendar year. A low-scoring away victory is the most probable outcome, though a draw cannot be ruled out given Jonava’s occasional home stubbornness.