Flamengo RJ - Fluminense RJ prediction 11 October 2026

Flamengo RJ vs Fluminense RJ prediction for October 11, 2026, in Brazil's Serie A. League leaders Flamengo RJ are the clear favorites, calculated with a 58% win probability. Fluminense RJ, third in the table, face an uphill battle at the Maracanã Stadium.

Flamengo RJ vs Fluminense RJ Prediction: Team Form

Flamengo RJ are unbeaten in their last five outings (D W D W W), scoring 9 goals and conceding 5. Their most recent results include a 2-2 away draw at Santos SP and back-to-back home wins over Red Bull Bragantino SP (2-1) and Corinthians SP (2-1). Overall, Flamengo have amassed 57 league goals while letting in only 25.

Fluminense RJ have won three and lost two of their last five (W W L L W). Both defeats came on the road – a 2-1 loss at CA Platense Buenos Aires and a 3-1 loss at Atletico Mineiro MG. The side managed a convincing 3-1 away win at Corinthians SP and a 4-0 home thrashing of Coritiba PR. In the league, they have scored 48 times and conceded 36.

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, Flamengo RJ lead the head-to-head with 27 wins, 16 draws, and 19 losses to Fluminense RJ. The last five meetings:

• Apr 12, 2026 (Serie A): Fluminense RJ 1 – 2 Flamengo RJ
• Mar 8, 2026 (Campeonato Carioca): Fluminense RJ 0 – 0 Flamengo RJ
• Jan 25, 2026 (Campeonato Carioca): Fluminense RJ 2 – 1 Flamengo RJ
• Nov 20, 2025 (Serie A): Fluminense RJ 2 – 1 Flamengo RJ
• Jul 20, 2025 (Serie A): Flamengo RJ 1 – 0 Fluminense RJ

In the most recent Serie A clash, Flamengo grabbed a 2-1 away victory, continuing a trend where the home side does not always dominate.

League Table Positions

Flamengo RJ sit 1st with 61 points (18 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses, +32 goal difference) after 29 games. Fluminense RJ are 3rd on 51 points (14 wins, 9 draws, 6 losses, +12 goal difference). Flamengo’s home form is formidable – 10 wins, 3 draws and only 1 defeat. Fluminense’s away record is not among the top eight in the division, highlighting their vulnerability on the road.

Win Probability: Flamengo RJ or Fluminense RJ?

Flamengo RJ has a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Fluminense RJ has a 14% chance. Bookmaker odds initially implied a Flamengo win probability of about 53.7%, but their dominant home record (10-3-1), Fluminense’s away struggles, and the overall head-to-head edge push that figure higher. Flamengo are clearly the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 market lists Flamengo RJ at 1.46, the draw at 2.45, and Fluminense RJ at 5.50. Betting tips based on the stats lean heavily towards a home victory. Our Flamengo RJ vs Fluminense RJ prediction is a Flamengo win, supported by their league superiority and strong home performances.