Flora Tallinn II - Nomme United 2 prediction 22 October 2026

The Flora Tallinn II vs Nomme United 2 prediction for this Esiliiga clash on Oct 22 at 17:00 points towards a home win. Flora Tallinn II enters the match as the favorite with an estimated 47% win probability, based on recent form and odds analysis. The game will be played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.

Team Form

Flora Tallinn II's recent form shows inconsistency, with their last five matches returning one win, one draw, and three losses (L, D, L, W, L). In these fixtures, they scored multiple goals on two occasions but also conceded heavily in defeats against Levadia Tallinn II (6-2) and FC Tallinn (2-1). A 5-1 away victory at JK Nomme Kalju II demonstrates their attacking potential.

Nomme United 2 comes into the match with slightly better momentum, recording three wins and two losses in their last five outings (L, L, W, W, W). However, both defeats came in their most recent matches, a 4-3 loss to Tartu JK Welco Elekter and a 1-0 home defeat to Levadia Tallinn II. Prior to this, they had a three-game winning streak, including a 3-2 away win at JK Nomme Kalju II.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Flora Tallinn II and Nomme United 2 is perfectly balanced with three draws from three meetings. All matches in this fixture have seen both teams score, with the most recent encounter on Jul 12 ending 1-1. The previous two games, on Jun 30 and May 13, were high-scoring draws of 3-3 and 2-2 respectively, indicating that goals are almost guaranteed when these sides meet.

League Table Positions

Flora Tallinn II sits 5th in the Esiliiga with 48 points from 31 matches. They have scored 73 goals and conceded 55. At home, their record is stronger, with 8 wins from 15 games and 35 goals scored, placing them 5th in the home standings.

Nomme United 2 is 8th with 36 points from 32 matches, scoring 53 and conceding 67. Their away form is a concern, with only 4 wins from 16 games and 43 goals conceded. The 12-point gap and two-position difference in the table highlights Flora Tallinn II's superiority this season.

Win Probability: Flora Tallinn II or Nomme United 2?

Based on our analysis of the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, league table positions, and home advantage, we calculate the win probability as follows: Flora Tallinn II has a 47% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and Nomme United 2 has a 24% chance. We derived these figures by averaging the inverse of the available odds (home: ~55% before margin normalization, adjusted down due to mixed home form and H2H draws; away: ~30% before normalization, adjusted down for poor away stats) and then applying adjustments for form and standings. The 100% total reflects true probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin. Flora Tallinn II is the more likely winner, but the history of draws in this fixture is a significant factor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Flora Tallinn II as the clear favorite. The available odds show home win prices ranging from 1.70 to 1.88, while a Nomme United 2 victory is priced between 2.80 and 3.50. The draw is offered at odds from 2.82 to 4.75. Our match prediction is a home win for Flora Tallinn II, but with caution. Given all three H2H meetings ended in draws, the value may lie in the double chance or both teams to score markets. Based on the stats, Flora Tallinn II's home strength should be enough to secure the victory, but expect Nomme United 2 to score.