Viimsi MRJK - Flora Tallinn II prediction 26 October 2026

The Viimsi MRJK vs Flora Tallinn II prediction for October 26, 2026, points towards a home victory in this Esiliiga clash. Based on our win probability analysis, Viimsi MRJK enters the match as the clear favorite with a 55% chance of winning, while Flora Tallinn II has just a 20% chance of causing an upset. The match kicks off at 17:00.

Team Form

Viimsi MRJK's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins followed by three losses in their last five matches (W, W, L, L, L). Their most recent outings were impressive away victories, beating FC Tallinn 3-0 on Oct 19 and Tallinna Kalev 2-1 on Oct 10. However, a 4-1 cup defeat to Tammeka Tartu and league losses to Tartu JK Welco Elekter (0-2) and Nomme United 2 (0-1) highlight some inconsistency.

Flora Tallinn II also arrives with patchy form, recording one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five (W, L, D, L, W). They secured a 3-2 home win against Nomme United 2 on Oct 22 but suffered a 1-2 home loss to FC Tallinn and a 1-2 defeat to Elva. A 2-2 draw at Tallinna Kalev and a 5-1 thrashing of JK Nomme Kalju II round out their recent results.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favors Viimsi MRJK, who have won 6 of the 11 encounters, with Flora Tallinn II winning 3 and 2 draws. The most recent meeting on Aug 21, 2026, saw Flora Tallinn II win 2-1 at home. However, Viimsi MRJK dominated the two prior clashes, winning 4-0 away on May 9, 2026, and 2-1 at home on Mar 6, 2026. Viimsi also won the Oct 16, 2025 fixture 2-0 at home, demonstrating their strength in this matchup, particularly on home soil.

League Table Positions

Viimsi MRJK sits 2nd in the Esiliiga table with 57 points from 33 matches, boasting a strong defensive record with only 32 goals conceded. Flora Tallinn II is 3rd with 51 points from 32 games, having scored 76 goals but conceded 57. The home/away splits are telling: Viimsi MRJK has the 2nd-best away record in the league (33 points from 17 games), while Flora Tallinn II's away form is 4th best (23 points from 16 games). Viimsi's home form is 6th (24 points from 16 games), whereas Flora Tallinn II's home record is 2nd best, suggesting the venue could be a decisive factor.

Win Probability: Viimsi MRJK or Flora Tallinn II?

After calculating the implied probabilities from the available odds and adjusting for team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we assess the chances as follows: Viimsi MRJK has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Flora Tallinn II has a 20% chance. The bookmakers' average odds imply a strong home advantage, and Viimsi's superior league standing, better defensive record, and dominant recent H2H results at home all support this probability distribution. Flora Tallinn II's inconsistent form and leaky defense make an away win unlikely.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market show Viimsi MRJK as the favorite, with home win odds ranging from 1.47 to 2.05. The draw is priced between 2.62 and 5.17, while an away win for Flora Tallinn II is offered at 4.00 to 4.70. Based on the stats, the value likely lies with a home win. Our final Viimsi MRJK vs Flora Tallinn II prediction is a home victory, reflecting their higher league position, historical dominance in this fixture, and Flora Tallinn II's struggles on the road.