Harju JK Laagri - Flora Tallinn prediction 28 October 2026

Our Harju JK Laagri vs Flora Tallinn prediction for this Meistriliiga clash on Oct 28 at 16:00 gives Harju JK Laagri a 41% win probability, with Flora Tallinn at 35% and the draw at 24%. Harju JK Laagri enter the match as the slight favorite based on their recent head-to-head victory just seven days ago and a strong run of home form.

Team Form

Harju JK Laagri

Harju JK Laagri come into this fixture in excellent shape, having won four of their last five matches. Their recent results show victories over Flora Tallinn (3-1), Parnu JK Vaprus (2-0), Nomme United (2-0), and JK Nomme Kalju (1-0), with the only defeat coming away at Levadia Tallinn (2-1). The team has scored 9 goals and conceded only 2 in those four wins, demonstrating solidity at both ends of the pitch.

Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn's recent form is a concern. They have lost four of their last five matches, with the only win coming at home against Tammeka Tartu (2-0). Losses to JK Nomme Kalju (2-1), Harju JK Laagri (3-1), Levadia Tallinn (3-1), and Kuressaare (2-0) highlight defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 10 goals in those four defeats.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favors Flora Tallinn with 10 wins to Harju JK Laagri's 2, and no draws in their 12 previous meetings. However, the most recent encounter—played just last week on Oct 21—saw Harju JK Laagri defeat Flora Tallinn 3-1 at home. Harju JK Laagri have also won the last two home fixtures in this matchup, including a 2-0 victory back in March 2026. This suggests a shifting dynamic in the rivalry.

League Table Positions

Harju JK Laagri currently sit 6th in the Meistriliiga standings with 47 points from 34 matches (15 wins, 2 draws, 17 losses). Flora Tallinn are 3rd with 58 points from 34 matches (19 wins, 1 draw, 14 losses). The 11-point gap indicates Flora's stronger overall season, but Harju JK Laagri's home record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses (29 points) compares favorably with Flora Tallinn's away record of 9 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses (28 points).

Win Probability: Harju JK Laagri or Flora Tallinn?

Harju JK Laagri has a 41% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Flora Tallinn has a 35% chance. This probability assessment is based on an analysis of recent form, head-to-head trends, and home advantage. Harju JK Laagri's four wins in five games, combined with a convincing 3-1 victory over Flora Tallinn just days ago, boosts their chances significantly. Flora Tallinn's poor run of four losses in five away games further strengthens the case for the home side. While the overall H2H record and league position favor the visitors, current momentum points toward Harju JK Laagri.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have not provided specific odds for this match yet. Based on the stats, Harju JK Laagri appear the more likely winner given their home advantage and superior recent form. Our Harju JK Laagri vs Flora Tallinn prediction is a home win for Harju JK Laagri, though a tight contest is expected considering Flora Tallinn's historically dominant head-to-head record. The total goals could lean towards under 2.5 based on Harju's solid defensive record in recent home games, but the 3-1 result last week suggests potential for more.