Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn prediction 11 October 2026

The Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn prediction for October 11, 2026, provides a clear betting insight into this Meistriliiga clash. Based on our win probability model, Flora Tallinn enters the match as the favorite with a 52% chance of victory, while Kuressaare's chances stand at 18% and the draw at 30%.

Team Form

Kuressaare have struggled for consistency in their recent outings, recording one win, two draws, and two losses in the last five matches. Their results include a 0-0 draw with Harju JK Laagri (Sep 18), a 1-3 defeat to Tammeka Tartu (Sep 13), a 0-4 loss at Levadia Tallinn (Sep 9), a 3-1 home win over JK Narva Trans (Sep 5), and a 2-2 home draw with Parnu JK Vaprus (Aug 29).

Flora Tallinn, on the other hand, are in excellent form with four wins and one draw from their last five fixtures. They beat Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 at home (Sep 20), won 3-2 at Nomme United (Sep 12), drew 2-2 at JK Narva Trans (Sep 8), defeated JK Nomme Kalju 2-1 at home (Sep 5), and edged Tammeka Tartu 3-2 at home (Sep 2).

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record heavily favours Flora Tallinn: in 37 meetings, Flora have won 32 times, Kuressaare 3, with 2 draws. However, the last five encounters show a small twist: Flora won four of those, but Kuressaare stunned them with a 3-2 away win on August 16, 2026. The other recent matches ended 3-0 to Flora (Jul 2, 2026), 2-1 to Flora (Apr 7, 2026), 2-0 to Flora (Nov 1, 2025), and 2-1 to Flora (Aug 24, 2025).

League Table Positions

Kuressaare sit 8th in the Meistriliiga with 29 points from 29 matches (W8 D5 L16). At home, they have 18 points from 14 games (W5 D3 L6), ranking 8th. Flora Tallinn are 2nd with 55 points from 29 games (W18 D1 L10). Away from home, they’ve collected 28 points from 14 matches (W9 D1 L4), the second-best away record in the league. The 26-point gap between the sides underlines the visitors’ superiority.

Win Probability: Kuressaare or Flora Tallinn?

The win probability calculation starts with the average implied chances from bookmakers’ odds. After normalising to remove the overround, the raw odds give Kuressaare a 20% chance, the draw 31%, and Flora Tallinn 49%. We then adjust these figures based on recent form, the dominant H2H record (32 wins for Flora in 37 games), and the clear league table difference. Home advantage provides Kuressaare a small boost, but Flora’s superior form and head-to-head numbers tip the scale. Final adjusted probabilities: Kuressaare win — 18%, Draw — 30%, Flora Tallinn win — 52%. The conclusion is that Flora Tallinn are the more likely winners on match day.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers reflect the gulf between the sides: home win odds range from 4.20 to 5.00, the draw is priced between 2.38 and 4.57, and an away win for Flora Tallinn is available from 1.56 to 2.05. These odds firmly position Flora Tallinn as the favourite. Taking into account all the stats – Kuressaare’s shaky form, Flora’s strong recent run, and a 32–3 advantage in the overall head-to-head – the data points towards an away win. For those looking for betting tips, backing Flora to win appears the most logical match outcome based on the numbers.