Follo - Stjordals Blink prediction 3 October 2026

Our Follo vs Stjordals Blink prediction for the 2nd Division match on October 3, 2026, at 13:30, points to an incredibly tight contest. The win probabilities are almost identical: Follo at 38%, Stjordals Blink at 38%, and the draw at 24%. Bookmakers have Stjordals Blink as slight favourites, but Follo’s home advantage and superior head-to-head record level the playing field.

Team Form

Follo come into this match in poor form, with just one win in their last five outings (W1 D1 L3). They lost 0-2 at home to Sarpsborg 08 in the Cup, drew 2-2 at Kjelsas, lost 0-1 at home to Eidsvold Turn, were beaten 5-2 at Levanger, and edged Tromsdalen 1-0 at home. Defensive frailties have been evident, conceding 10 goals in those five matches while scoring only 5.

Stjordals Blink’s recent form is also inconsistent. They started with back-to-back home wins: 3-0 against Ullensaker-Kisa and 2-0 against Lorenskog. However, they then suffered three consecutive defeats: a 0-1 home loss to Fredrikstad in the Cup, a heavy 5-0 away loss at Kjelsas, and a 1-3 home defeat to Eidsvold Turn. Like Follo, they have struggled defensively, shipping 9 goals in their last three matches and scoring 6 in the last five overall.

Head-to-Head Record

Follo hold a 2-1 advantage in the last three meetings between these sides. The most recent encounter was on April 25, 2026, when Follo won 2-1 away at Stjordals Blink. In the 2025 season, Stjordals Blink won 2-0 at home in August, while Follo triumphed 1-0 at home in April. All three matches were decided by a single goal or a two-goal margin, suggesting tight contests.

League Table Positions

Neither Follo nor Stjordals Blink appear in the top 12 of the 2nd Division standings, indicating both teams are positioned in the lower half of the table. The lack of available points data makes it difficult to assess their exact standing, but it’s clear both are far from the promotion places.

Win Probability: Follo or Stjordals Blink?

Based on the bookmaker odds and our analysis of team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Follo win: 38%
• Draw: 24%
• Stjordals Blink win: 38%

The initial implied probabilities from the first set of odds (home 2.69, draw 4.23, away 2.30) gave Stjordals Blink a 41.7% chance, Follo 35.6%, and the draw 22.7% after removing the bookmaker margin. We adjusted these figures to reflect Follo’s home advantage and their positive H2H record (2 wins in 3 meetings), which brings the probabilities to a near dead heat. This is a match where a single moment of quality or a defensive error could decide the outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for a Follo win are around 2.69, while a Stjordals Blink victory can be backed at approximately 2.30, and the draw is priced at 4.23. Bookmakers clearly see Stjordals Blink as the favourites, but the margin is slim. Given the recent form of both teams—each with three losses in their last five—and the tight head-to-head history, a low-scoring draw appears a very realistic outcome. Our Follo vs Stjordals Blink prediction is a cautious one: this game could go either way, but the value might lie in backing the draw or a narrow away win. For betting tips, both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, so under 2.5 goals could also be a sensible consideration.