Italy - France prediction 12 November 2026
Italy
FranceItaly
TurkeyFranceItalyTurkeyItalyItalyBelgiumGreeceItalyLuxembourgItalyBosnia-HerzegovinaItalyItalyNorthern IrelandItalyBrazilItalyAlgeriaPolandItalyItalyFranceGermanyItalyItalyGermanyItalyFranceFranceBelgiumFranceItalyBelgiumFranceTurkeyFranceFranceEnglandFranceSpainFranceMoroccoParaguayFranceFranceSwedenNorwayFranceFranceIraqFranceSenegalFranceNorthern IrelandFranceCote d'IvoireColombiaFrance| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | 2.45 | 2.15 | |
| 4.25 | 2.42 | 2.02 | |
| 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.25 |
- 95Alessandro Bastonidefender
- 4Alessandro Romanomidfielder
- 26Antonio Vergaramidfielder
- 70Daniel Maldiniforward
- 23Gianluca Mancinidefender
- 9Gianluca Scamaccaforward
- 1Gianluigi Donnarummagoalkeeper
- 22Giovanni Di Lorenzodefender
- 77Issa Doumbiamidfielder
- Matteo Ruggeridefender
- 23Nicolรฒ Barellamidfielder
- 28Nicolรฒ Cambiaghiforward
- 5Riccardo Calafioridefender
- 16Davide Frattesi
- 94Francesco Pio Esposito
- Giorgio Scalvini
- 25Guglielmo Vicario
- 29Marco Carnesecchi
- 2Michael Kayode
- 44Nicolรฒ Fagioli
- 40Samuele Inacio
- 8Sandro Tonali
- 94Sebastiano Esposito
- Adrien Rabiotmidfielder
- 17Andy Dioufdefender
- 12Bradley Barcolaforward
- Desire Doueforward
- Eduardo Camavingamidfielder
- 16Guillaume Restesgoalkeeper
- Jules Koundedefender
- Manu Konรฉmidfielder
- 15Leny Yorodefender
- 7Lucas Da Cunhamidfielder
- Maghnes Aklioucheforward
- 17Maxence Lacroixdefender
- 17Michael Oliseforward
- Ousmane Dembรฉlรฉforward
- 15Pierre Kaluludefender
- 3Adrien Truffert
- Esteban Lepaul
- 1Jean Butez
- 22Jรฉrรฉmy Jacquet
- 16Mike Maignan
- 9Rayan Cherki
FranceItalyItalyFranceItalyFranceFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceFranceItalyItalyFranceItalyFranceFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItalyItalyFranceItalyFranceFranceItalyItalyFranceItalyFranceFranceItalyItalyFranceFranceItalyFranceItalyFranceItaly| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |  Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 |
| 6 |  Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:0 | +4 | 8 |
| 9 |  Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 8 |
| 10 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:3 | +3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:1 | +8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | +6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 7 |
| 17 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 7 |
| 18 |  Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 7 |
| 19 |  England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | +8 | 6 |
| 20 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 6 |
| 21 |  Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 |
| 22 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | +1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 24 |  Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 25 |  Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 5 |
| 26 |  Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 5 |
| 27 |  Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | +2 | 5 |
| 28 |  Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 |  Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 30 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 31 |  Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 4 |
| 32 |  Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | +2 | 4 |
| 33 |  Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 4 |
| 34 |  Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 35 |  Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:4 | +3 | 4 |
| 36 |  Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 4 |
| 37 |  Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 38 |  Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | -9 | 3 |
| 39 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 40 |  Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 41 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 42 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 43 |  Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 2 |
| 44 |  Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 2 |
| 45 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
| 46 |  Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 47 |  Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 1 |
| 48 |  Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 1 |
| 49 |  North Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:7 | -7 | 0 |
| 50 |  San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:14 | -14 | 0 |
| 51 |  Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | -5 | 0 |
| 52 |  Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
| 53 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:13 | -10 | 0 |
| 54 |  Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 |
France vs Italy Prediction (Oct 2)
The France vs Italy prediction for October 2, 2026, points to a tight UEFA Nations League clash at the Puskรกs Arรฉna in Budapest. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, France enters this match as the favorite with a 55% win probability, while Italy has an 18% chance and the draw sits at 27%.
Team Form
France's recent form shows three wins in their last five outings (W, W, L, L, W). They secured back-to-back 1-0 away victories against Belgium and Turkey in the Nations League in late September 2026, keeping clean sheets in both. Earlier in the summer, they suffered World Cup defeats to England (4-6) and Spain (0-2) but bounced back with a 2-0 win over Morocco. The French defense has been solid in competitive fixtures, conceding no goals in their last two matches.
- Sep 28: Belgium 0-1 France (Nations League)
- Sep 25: Turkey 0-1 France (Nations League)
- Jul 18: France 4-6 England (World Cup)
- Jul 14: France 0-2 Spain (World Cup)
- Jul 9: France 2-0 Morocco (World Cup)
Italy's last five results read W, L, W, W, D. They thrashed Turkey 4-1 away in their most recent Nations League game on September 28, 2026, but lost 0-2 at home to Belgium just three days earlier. Prior to that, they recorded friendly wins over Greece (1-0) and Luxembourg (1-0) and a 1-1 draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina in World Cup qualifying. Italy have been inconsistent, alternating strong attacking displays with defensive lapses.
- Sep 28: Turkey 1-4 Italy (Nations League)
- Sep 25: Italy 0-2 Belgium (Nations League)
- Jun 7: Greece 0-1 Italy (Friendly)
- Jun 3: Luxembourg 0-1 Italy (Friendly)
- Mar 31: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-1 Italy (World Cup Qual Play Off)
Head-to-Head Record
The overall head-to-head record between these two nations heavily favors Italy, who have won 16 of the 29 meetings, compared to France's 11 victories, with only 2 draws. The most recent encounter was a Kings League match on January 3, 2026, where Italy demolished France 8-0. However, in their last UEFA Nations League meeting on November 17, 2024, France won 3-1 away in Italy. The three friendlies in 2021 produced a 5-4 France win, a 28-28 draw, and a 25-22 Italy victory, showing how unpredictable this fixture can be.
League Table Positions
In the current UEFA Nations League overall standings, France sit 4th with a perfect record of 2 wins from 2 matches, scoring 2 goals and conceding none. Italy are not listed among the top 12 teams, meaning their exact position is unknown, but they have 1 win and 1 loss from their two Nations League outings so far. France's flawless start and defensive record give them a clear edge in the competition context.
Win Probability: France or Italy?
After analyzing the odds, recent form, and historical data, the win probabilities for this match are: France win โ 55%, draw โ 27%, Italy win โ 18%. Bookmakers' odds imply a home win probability around 53% on average, but France's strong Nations League form and Italy's inconsistency justify a slight upward adjustment. The neutral venue reduces the typical home advantage, but France's defensive solidity and perfect record in the competition make them the most likely winner. Italy's chances are limited by their defensive vulnerabilities shown against Belgium.
Odds & Match Prediction
The best available odds for this match range from 1.38 to 1.75 for a France win, 2.62 to 2.90 for the draw, and 4.95 to 7.20 for an Italy victory. These prices confirm that bookmakers see France as the clear favorite. Based on the stats, a France win is the most probable outcome, likely with a low-scoring margin given their recent defensive record. A draw cannot be ruled out, but Italy would need a significant improvement to pull off an upset.
France vs Italy โ FAQ
- Who will win France vs Italy?
- Based on our analysis, France has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Italy has an 18% chance. France is the favorite due to their strong Nations League form and solid defense.
- What is the win probability for France?
- France has a 55% win probability. This is derived from bookmaker odds (average implied probability of 53%) adjusted upward because of their perfect record in the competition and Italy's recent defensive struggles.
- When is the France vs Italy match?
- The match is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 19:45 local time (Budapest). It is a UEFA Nations League fixture taking place at the Puskรกs Arรฉna.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The odds vary across bookmakers: a France win is priced between 1.38 and 1.75, a draw between 2.62 and 2.90, and an Italy win between 4.95 and 7.20. These odds reflect France's status as the clear favorite.
- What is the head-to-head record between France and Italy?
- In 29 previous meetings, Italy have won 16 times, France 11, with 2 draws. The most recent competitive match in the Nations League (2024) ended in a 3-1 away win for France.