Fraser Park - South Coast Flame prediction 31 July 2026

Fraser Park vs South Coast Flame prediction for July 31, 2026, in the NSW League 2. Based on our analysis, Fraser Park has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 36%, and South Coast Flame has a 26% chance. Fraser Park are the favorites, but the match is expected to be closely contested.

Team Form

Fraser Park come into this match in strong form, having won three of their last five matches (W, W, W, L, D). They secured a 2-1 home victory over Gladesville Ryde Magic on July 24, followed by a thrilling 5-4 away win at Nepean FC on July 17. At home on July 10, they beat Stanmore Hawks 3-1. The only recent defeats were a 2-0 loss at Sydney University on June 27 and a 1-1 draw at Hawkesbury City SC on June 20. Fraser Park have scored 11 goals in these five games, showing attacking prowess but also conceding 9.

• Jul 24: Fraser Park 2-1 Gladesville Ryde Magic (W)
• Jul 17: Nepean FC 4-5 Fraser Park (W)
• Jul 10: Fraser Park 3-1 Stanmore Hawks (W)
• Jun 27: Sydney University 2-0 Fraser Park (L)
• Jun 20: Hawkesbury City SC 1-1 Fraser Park (D)

South Coast Flame's recent form is mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five (L, D, W, W, D). They suffered a 2-0 home loss to Stanmore Hawks on July 25, then drew 0-0 with Bonnyrigg White Eagles on July 18. Away from home, they beat Bankstown United 1-0 on July 11, and at home they edged Central Coast United 1-0 on July 4. Their last away match was a 1-1 draw at Camden Tigers SC on June 27. The Flame have been defensively solid, conceding only 3 goals in these five matches, but they have scored just 3 times.

• Jul 25: South Coast Flame 0-2 Stanmore Hawks (L)
• Jul 18: South Coast Flame 0-0 Bonnyrigg White Eagles (D)
• Jul 11: Bankstown United 0-1 South Coast Flame (W)
• Jul 4: South Coast Flame 1-0 Central Coast United (W)
• Jun 27: Camden Tigers SC 1-1 South Coast Flame (D)

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors South Coast Flame. In their last four meetings, South Coast Flame have won three times, with one draw, and Fraser Park are yet to record a victory. The most recent clash was on April 18, 2026, when South Coast Flame won 2-1 at home. The last meeting at Fraser Park ended in a 2-2 draw on August 30, 2025. Earlier, on May 17, 2025, South Coast Flame thrashed Fraser Park 6-0, and on February 18, 2023, they won 2-1. Overall, South Coast Flame have outscored Fraser Park 12-4 across these four encounters, with a total of 16 goals (average 4.0 per game).

Win Probability: Fraser Park or South Coast Flame?

Based on the available odds and team performance data, we have calculated the win probabilities for this match. The bookmakers' odds (home 2.25, draw 2.50, away 4.00) imply a 40.6% chance for a Fraser Park win, 36.6% for a draw, and 22.8% for a South Coast Flame win after removing the margin. Adjusting for Fraser Park's strong recent form and home advantage, but also accounting for South Coast Flame's dominant head-to-head record, we estimate the true probabilities as: Fraser Park win 38%, draw 36%, South Coast Flame win 26%. Fraser Park is the most likely winner, but the draw is also a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this NSW League 2 fixture show Fraser Park as the favorite. One bookmaker offers 2.25 for a home win, 2.50 for the draw, and 4.00 for an away win. Other bookmakers have similar lines: a second lists 2.22, 2.42, 3.75, and a third offers 2.20, 2.60, 3.75. These odds reflect the expectation of a competitive match with a slight edge for the home side.

Our prediction: Considering Fraser Park's attacking form and home advantage, they are the more likely side to win. However, South Coast Flame's defensive organization and historical success in this fixture cannot be ignored. A draw is a strong possibility. We predict a tight contest, with Fraser Park having the best chance to edge it, but a stalemate is also a very plausible outcome.