Aubstadt - FV Illertissen prediction 13 October 2026

This Aubstadt vs FV Illertissen prediction for the Regionalliga match on October 13, 2026, at 17:30 local time points to a clear away favourite. Based on head-to-head dominance, recent form, and bookmaker markets, we give FV Illertissen a 50% win probability, well ahead of the home side's 20% chance. A draw is rated at 30%.

Team Form

Aubstadt come into this fixture in poor form. Their last five matches have produced four defeats and just one victory, with lopsided scorelines like a 0-3 loss to Augsburg II and a 2-3 home reverse against Unterhaching. The lone bright spot was a 4-0 home win over Bayreuth back in May, but the overall sequence (L, L, L, W, L) highlights defensive fragility and a lack of consistency.

FV Illertissen are in mixed form with two wins, one draw, and two losses from their last five. Highlights include a 3-0 away victory at Schweinfurt 05 and a 2-1 home win over Nürnberg II. However, a 3-3 draw at DJK Vilzing and a 0-2 home defeat to FC Memmingen suggest some vulnerability. Still, their ability to win on the road gives them an edge ahead of this trip.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent history between these sides is heavily weighted towards the visitors. In five previous meetings, Aubstadt have managed only one win, while FV Illertissen have secured four victories, with no draws. The most recent clash on April 6, 2026, ended 1-0 to FV Illertissen. In fact, the last three H2H encounters have all gone the way of the away side, including a 5-3 triumph for Illertissen in September 2025 and a 3-1 win in November 2024. Aubstadt's lone success came way back in August 2021 with a 2-1 away win.

Win Probability: Aubstadt or FV Illertissen?

We started from the average bookmakers' odds of 3.40 for a home win, 2.275 for the draw, and 2.475 for an away win. Cleaning out the overround, the implied probabilities are roughly 25.9% (home), 38.6% (draw), and 35.5% (away). However, those numbers do not fully account for the actual H2H trends, where FV Illertissen have won four out of five and no game has finished level, or Aubstadt's terrible current run of four losses in their last five outings. Adjusting for these factors, along with the home advantage (which has yielded just one win in the last five home matches for Aubstadt), we shift the likelihood significantly towards the visitors. Our final probabilities are: Aubstadt win – 20%, Draw – 30%, FV Illertissen win – 50%. In short, FV Illertissen hold the upper hand and are the more probable winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers currently offer around 3.40 for an Aubstadt victory, while the draw is priced as low as 2.25 and an FV Illertissen win at 2.45–2.50. This indicates the market sees the draw as the most likely outcome, with the away win not far behind. Our analysis, grounded in head-to-head data and recent form, challenges that view and suggests a higher away-win probability. Therefore, the Aubstadt vs FV Illertissen prediction is an away win for FV Illertissen, given their consistent H2H superiority and Aubstadt’s ragged form.