Gareji - Gori prediction 16 September 2026

Our Gareji vs Gori prediction for this Erovnuli 2 match on Sep 16, 2026 expects a home victory. With a 50% win probability, league leaders Gareji enter the game as clear favorites against 9th-placed Gori.

Team Form

Gareji’s last five results are mixed: L, D, W, W, L. After an impressive 2-1 away win at Merani Martvili on Aug 29, they suffered a heavy 6-1 defeat at Samtredia on Sep 12. A 3-3 home draw with Sioni Bolnisi on Sep 6 also exposed some defensive instability.

• Sep 12: Samtredia 6-1 Gareji (L)
• Sep 06: Gareji 3-3 Sioni Bolnisi (D)
• Aug 29: Merani Martvili 1-2 Gareji (W)
• Aug 22: Gareji 3-2 Kolkheti Poti (W)
• Aug 15: Gareji 0-2 Aragvi Dusheti (L)

Gori’s recent form reads D, W, W, L, L. They have recovered from back-to-back losses with a 3-1 home win over Shturmi and a 3-2 away win at FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi, before settling for a 2-2 home draw against Telavi on Sep 12.

• Sep 12: Gori 2-2 Telavi (D)
• Sep 06: FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi 2-3 Gori (W)
• Aug 29: Gori 3-1 Shturmi (W)
• Aug 22: Aragvi Dusheti 1-0 Gori (L)
• Aug 15: Samtredia 1-0 Gori (L)

Head-to-Head Record

Gareji have dominated this fixture, winning both previous meetings without conceding at home. The H2H stands at 2 wins for Gareji, 0 draws, 0 wins for Gori.

• Jun 13, 2026: Gori 1-3 Gareji
• Apr 22, 2026: Gareji 1-0 Gori

League Table Positions

Gareji sit top of the Erovnuli 2 with 47 points from 25 matches (13 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses; 33 goals scored, 26 conceded). At home they are the 2nd‑best side, with 8 wins, 3 draws and only 2 defeats (20 goals for, 13 against).

Gori are 9th with 26 points (6 wins, 8 draws, 11 losses; 25 goals for, 32 against). Their away record is not listed in the top 8, indicating a poor traveling form that contrasts sharply with Gareji’s home strength.

Win Probability: Gareji or Gori?

Using the average bookmaker odds of 1.70 for a Gareji win, 2.52 for the draw and 3.86 for a Gori win, the initial implied probabilities were 47%, 32% and 21% after removing the margin. We adjusted those numbers based on Gareji’s top‑of‑the‑table position, an outstanding home record (2nd in the home table), a spotless H2H (2-0) and Gori’s poor overall rank. Gareji has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Gori has a 20% chance. Gareji is the clear favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers strongly lean towards a home win. The best prices available show a Gareji victory between 1.65 and 1.77, a draw between 2.18 and 3.13, and a Gori win between 2.18 and 4.75. Based on the stats, the head-to-head record and the win probability, our final Gareji vs Gori prediction is a home win for Gareji.