Garliava - BFA Vilnius prediction 12 September 2026

The Garliava vs BFA Vilnius prediction for the 1 Lyga match on Sep 12 at 10:00 points to a tight contest. Based on the stats, BFA Vilnius has a 48% chance of winning, Garliava has a 32% chance, and the draw is at 20%.

Team Form

Garliava comes into this match in dreadful form, having lost their last five matches. They fell 1-0 to Ekranas Panevezio, 1-0 at home to FK Babrungas Plunge, 2-0 at Be1 NFA Kaunas, 1-0 at home to FK Tauras Taurage, and 3-1 at Hegelmann Litauen II. The team has failed to score in four of those five defeats.

BFA Vilnius is in much better shape, unbeaten in five with three wins and two draws. They beat FK Babrungas Plunge 2-1, drew 2-2 at FK Tauras Taurage, beat Neptunas Klaipeda 2-0, drew 0-0 at Dainava Alytus, and thrashed FK Transinvest B 4-2. The away side has scored 10 goals in this run.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced at one win each from two meetings. BFA Vilnius won 2-1 at home in the Cup on May 19, 2026, while Garliava won 2-1 away in the 1 Lyga on May 09, 2026. There have been no draws, and both matches saw three total goals.

League Table Positions

BFA Vilnius sits 7th in the 1 Lyga with 39 points from 23 matches (12 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses). Garliava is 11th with 22 points from 22 matches (6 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses). The 17-point gap reflects the gulf in class this season. BFA Vilnius has a strong home record (8 wins from 12), but away they have been more vulnerable with 4 wins and 5 losses. Garliava's home form is not listed in the top 8, indicating struggles at their own ground.

Win Probability: Garliava or BFA Vilnius?

Garliava has a 32% chance of winning, the draw is at 20%, and BFA Vilnius has a 48% chance. These probabilities are calculated from the available odds (home 2.55, draw 3.25, away 2.35), which imply a bookmaker margin. After normalizing, the base probabilities are adjusted for Garliava's five-match losing streak and BFA Vilnius's five-match unbeaten run. The head-to-head split and the 17-point league gap further support BFA Vilnius as the likely winner, though Garliava's home advantage and their recent H2H away win prevent a higher probability for the visitors.

Odds & Match Prediction

The bookmakers see this as a close match. The odds are 2.55 for a Garliava home win, 3.25 for the draw, and 2.35 for a BFA Vilnius away win. Based on the stats, BFA Vilnius is the favorite, but the odds suggest no outcome is a foregone conclusion. The prediction is an away win, but the draw is a real possibility given Garliava's desperation to end their losing run.