Gasogi United - Gorilla FC prediction 21 October 2026

Gasogi United vs Gorilla FC prediction for their National League match on October 21, 2026, at 14:00 local time. Our analysis indicates Gorilla FC is the slight favorite with a 36% win probability, while Gasogi United has a 32% chance of victory and the draw stands at 32%. Read on for full betting tips, odds, and head-to-head stats.

Team Form

Gasogi United

Gasogi United come into this fixture with a patchy record—L, D, W, D, L in their last five outings. They lost 2-0 at home to Bugesera on October 18, drew 1-1 away at Sunrise FC (Oct 14), beat Musanze 1-0 away (Oct 11), played out a 0-0 draw against Gorilla FC (Sep 17), and fell 2-0 to Mukura (Sep 6). In those five games, they scored just 3 goals and conceded 5, highlighting attacking struggles.

Gorilla FC

Gorilla FC's recent form reads D, W, D, L, W from their last five matches. They drew 0-0 away at Police FC Rwanda (Oct 16), defeated Rayon Sports 1-0 at home (Oct 9), shared a 0-0 draw with Gasogi United (Sep 17), lost 1-0 at home to Etincelles (Sep 12), and beat Kiyovu Sports 1-0 away (Sep 5). Gorilla have kept four clean sheets in that run, conceding just one goal, which underlines their defensive solidity.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, these sides have met 14 times. Gorilla FC hold a 6-4 advantage in wins, with 4 draws. The last five meetings have been tight: a 0-0 draw (Sep 17, 2026), a 2-1 home win for Gasogi (Apr 17, 2026), a 2-1 away win for Gasogi (Jan 12, 2026), a 2-1 home win for Gorilla (May 20, 2025), and a 2-2 draw (Nov 30, 2024). The head-to-head suggests neither team dominates, but Gorilla have been slightly more successful overall.

League Table Positions

In the Rwanda National League, Gorilla FC sit 5th with 7 points from 4 matches (2W, 1D, 1L, goals 2-1). Gasogi United are 11th with 4 points (1W, 1D, 2L, goals 2-5). The away form of Gorilla is particularly impressive—they have collected 4 points from 2 away games (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, 1 goal scored, 0 conceded). Gasogi United's home record, in contrast, has been poor: they have lost one and drawn one in two home fixtures this season, scoring none and conceding 2.

Win Probability: Gasogi United or Gorilla FC?

To calculate the win probability for this Gasogi United vs Gorilla FC match, we first normalized the average bookmaker odds (home 2.53, draw 2.82, away 2.72). This gives implied chances of roughly 35% for a Gasogi win, 32% for a draw, and 33% for a Gorilla win. Then we adjusted for recent form, head-to-head, and league positions. Gasogi's scoring issues (2 goals in 4 league games) and weak home results reduce their edge. Gorilla's defensive strength (1 goal conceded in 4 league matches) and unbeaten away record boost their chances. Therefore, our final probabilities are: Gasogi United win – 32%, draw – 32%, Gorilla FC win – 36%. Based on the stats, Gorilla FC are the more likely winners, but a draw is also a very possible outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer tight odds for this fixture, reflecting a balanced contest. One bookie lists 2.55 for a Gasogi United win, 2.88 for a draw, and 2.70 for a Gorilla FC victory. Another prices the home win at 2.52, the draw at 2.75, and the away win at 2.75. The odds imply Gasogi United as a marginal favorite, but our analysis shows Gorilla FC have the statistical edge. Our prediction: Gorilla FC are the value pick to win or draw, with under 2.5 goals likely given both teams' low-scoring patterns.