Gefle IF - Pitea IF prediction 11 October 2026

The Gefle IF vs Pitea IF prediction for their Division 1 match on Oct 11, 2026, at 15:00 points to a closely contested game. Based on our analysis of the odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, Gefle IF has a 40% win probability, the draw stands at 35%, and Pitea IF has a 25% chance. The home side's perfect head-to-head record gives them a slight edge.

Team Form

Gefle IF come into this match with mixed results. Their last five outings (all competitions) produced two wins and three losses:

• Enkopings SK 1–0 Gefle IF (L)
• Gefle IF 0–1 Vasalunds IF (L)
• AFC Eskilstuna 0–1 Gefle IF (W)
• Gefle IF 0–2 Arlanda (L)
• Gefle IF 3–1 FC Jarfalla (W)

Pitea IF have recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches:

• Pitea IF 1–1 IF Karlstad (D)
• Assyriska 1–2 Pitea IF (W)
• Pitea IF 3–1 FC Jarfalla (W)
• Pitea IF 0–2 Umea FC (L)
• AFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Pitea IF (L)

Head-to-Head Record

Gefle IF have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning all three previous encounters. All meetings took place at Pitea IF's ground:

• Aug 1, 2026: Pitea IF 0–2 Gefle IF
• Sep 18, 2022: Pitea IF 1–4 Gefle IF
• Sep 18, 2022: Pitea IF 1–4 Gefle IF

Gefle IF's record stands at three wins, with no draws or losses in this head-to-head series. They have scored 10 goals and conceded only 2 across these matches.

Win Probability: Gefle IF or Pitea IF?

Using the best available odds (home 2.42, draw 2.20, away 3.60) we first remove the bookmaker margin. The implied probabilities before adjustment are 36% for a Gefle win, 40% for a draw, and 24% for a Pitea win. However, the stats demand a recalibration. Gefle IF's perfect head-to-head record (3 wins from 3) and home advantage slightly outweigh Pitea IF's marginally better recent form. Therefore, our adjusted win probability model assigns 40% to a Gefle IF victory, 35% to the draw, and 25% to a Pitea IF win. Gefle IF emerges as the most likely winner, but the draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of odds for the Gefle IF vs Pitea IF match: home win 2.30–2.42, draw 2.20–2.25, away win 3.60–4.20. The betting market sees the draw as the marginal favourite. Our analysis suggests that a home win offers the best value at around 2.42, given the 40% probability. A Gefle IF victory is our recommended betting tip, although cautious punters may prefer the double chance (Gefle IF or draw) to cover the high likelihood of a stalemate.