Northern Ireland - Georgia prediction 5 October 2026

The Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Oct 5, 2026, points to a home advantage for Northern Ireland. Our analysis gives Northern Ireland a 40% win probability, a draw at 35%, and Georgia a 25% chance. The match kicks off at 19:45 at Windsor Park.

Team Form

Northern Ireland come into this fixture in strong form, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. They beat Ukraine 3-0 away, drew 0-0 at home to Hungary, won 1-0 away against Georgia, lost 3-1 away to France, and beat Guinea 1-0 at home. That's an impressive run, especially the clean sheets against Ukraine and Georgia.

Georgia's recent form is less convincing: one win, two draws, and two losses. They lost 1-0 away to Hungary, drew 0-0 at home with Ukraine, lost 1-0 at home to Northern Ireland, beat Bahrain 2-0 at home, and drew 1-1 at home with Romania. Scoring has been a problem, with only three goals in five games.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once recently, on Sep 25, 2026, in the UEFA Nations League. Georgia hosted Northern Ireland and lost 0-1. That away win gives Northern Ireland a clear psychological edge and a perfect H2H record of one win, no draws, and no losses.

League Table Positions

In the overall UEFA Nations League standings, Northern Ireland sit 12th with 7 points from three matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), scoring 4 goals and conceding none. Georgia are outside the top 12, indicating a lower position and a tougher campaign so far. Northern Ireland's defensive record is particularly notable.

Win Probability: Northern Ireland or Georgia?

We calculate the win probabilities as: Northern Ireland 40%, draw 35%, Georgia 25%. The base odds implied a draw as the most likely outcome, but we adjusted for form, head-to-head, and home advantage. Northern Ireland's recent 1-0 win over Georgia, their three wins in five matches, and the fact they are playing at home all increase their chances. Georgia's struggles in front of goal and only one win in five reduce their likelihood of an away victory. A draw remains a strong possibility, but Northern Ireland are the more probable winners.

Northern Ireland vs Georgia Prediction: Odds & Final Verdict

Bookmakers' odds for this match vary. One bookmaker lists a Northern Ireland win at 2.88, a draw at 1.88, and a Georgia win at 3.45. These odds reflect the market's view that a draw is the single most likely result. However, our analysis, factoring in all available stats, suggests Northern Ireland have a better chance than the raw odds imply. Our final prediction: Northern Ireland to win, but with a draw as a very realistic alternative. For betting tips, the home win offers value, while the under 2.5 goals market could also be worth considering given both teams' recent low-scoring matches.