Ukraine - Georgia prediction 17 November 2026

The Georgia vs Ukraine prediction for this UEFA Nations League match on Sep 28, 2026, at 17:00 at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena points to a tightly contested encounter. Based on odds and form, the draw is seen as the most likely outcome at 35%, while Georgia has a 34% chance to win and Ukraine trails slightly at 31%.

Team Form

Georgia's last five matches have been mixed: a 0-1 home loss to Northern Ireland, a 2-0 home win over Bahrain, a 1-1 home draw with Romania, a 2-0 away win against Lithuania, and a 2-2 home draw with Israel. The recent defeat to Northern Ireland raises questions about their home consistency.

Ukraine's form across their last five outings reads W, L, W, W, L. They grabbed impressive away wins at Hungary (0-1) and Poland (0-2), lost narrowly 2-1 at Denmark, beat Albania 1-0 at home, and suffered a 1-3 home loss to Sweden. Their away performances against Hungary and Poland highlight their ability to cause problems on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head, Ukraine hold an edge with 2 wins to Georgia's 1, and there has been 1 draw from their 4 meetings. The most recent clash in the UEFA Nations League on Nov 16, 2024, ended 1-1 in Georgia, reinforcing how close these sides are.

League Table Positions

Neither Georgia nor Ukraine appear in the top 12 of the current league standings data provided. Both teams are outside the leading pack, which adds urgency to this fixture as they look to climb the table.

Win Probability: Georgia or Ukraine?

The win probabilities are calculated using the latest odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage. Georgia has a 34% chance of winning, the draw comes in at 35%, and Ukraine has a 31% chance. The bookmakers' average odds of 2.63 for a home win, 2.56 for the draw, and 2.91 for an away win have been normalized to remove the margin. The minimal differences show that any outcome is plausible, but a stalemate is the most probable scenario.

Georgia vs Ukraine Prediction: Odds & Match Outcome

Average match odds are 2.63 (Georgia), 2.56 (draw), and 2.91 (Ukraine). Some bookmakers quote draws as low as 2.10, underlining the expectation of a tight game. Based on the stats, a draw looks the safest call. If forced to pick a winner, Georgia’s home advantage might give them a slight edge, but Ukraine’s recent away form cannot be ignored. A low-scoring affair is likely; betting tips would lean toward under 2.5 goals or the draw no bet market.