Atletico Astorga - Gernika prediction 24 October 2026

The Atletico Astorga vs Gernika prediction for October 24, 2026, in Spain's Segunda Federacion points to a tight contest with the hosts holding a slight edge. Our win probability model gives Atletico Astorga a 35% chance, a draw 35%, and Gernika 30%. Kick-off is at 15:30 local time.

Team Form

Atletico Astorga come into this match with a mixed recent record: two wins and three losses in their last five outings. Their last match ended in a 4-1 defeat away to Compostela on October 17. Before that, they thrashed Ourense CF 4-0 at home, lost 1-0 at home to Amorebieta, fell 2-0 at Sestao River, and beat Marino Luanco 3-0 at home. The home form is notably stronger – two clean-sheet wins in three games at their own ground.

Gernika's last five results show one win, two draws, and two defeats. They lost 2-1 at home to Amorebieta on October 17, drew 1-1 at Deportivo Alaves B, lost 2-1 at home to Sestao River, drew 1-1 at Coruxo, and beat UD Llanera 4-0 at home. Away from home, Gernika are yet to win this season, with two draws and no victories in their travels.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Atletico Astorga and Gernika. This will be the first competitive meeting between the two clubs.

Win Probability: Atletico Astorga or Gernika?

After removing the bookmaker margin from the available odds and adjusting for recent form and home advantage, the probabilities are: Atletico Astorga win 35%, draw 35%, Gernika win 30%. The hosts' strong home performances – two 4-0 and 3-0 victories – contrast with Gernika's inability to win on the road, which tilts the balance slightly towards Atletico Astorga. However, both teams have been inconsistent, making a draw a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this Segunda Federacion clash. One set lists a home win at 3.40, the draw at 2.10, and an away win at 3.00. Another bookmaker prices Atletico Astorga at 2.70, the draw at 3.10, and Gernika at 2.32. The short draw price in the first set underlines how close the market expects this match to be. Based on the stats, Atletico Astorga's home edge makes them the marginal favourite, but a low-scoring draw is a strong possibility. For betting tips, the draw or a home win with a low goal total could offer value.