Malta - Gibraltar prediction 1 October 2026
Malta
GibraltarMalta
AndorraMaltaGibraltarMaltaLiechtensteinAndorraMaltaAzerbaijanMaltaSlovakiaMaltaLuxembourgMaltaMaltaLuxembourgMaltaBosnia-HerzegovinaMaltaSan MarinoMaltaAndorraMaltaLiechtensteinMaltaMoldovaMaltaBelarusMaltaSloveniaLiechtensteinGibraltarMaltaGibraltarGibraltarAndorraGibraltarSao Tome and PrincipeGibraltarCayman IslandsGibraltarBritish Virgin IslandsLatviaGibraltarGibraltarLatviaGibraltarNew CaledoniaGibraltarAlbaniaGibraltarMoldovaSan MarinoGibraltarLiechtensteinGibraltarLithuaniaGibraltarGibraltarLithuaniaMaltaGibraltarMaltaGibraltarMaltaGibraltar| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |  Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 |
| 6 |  Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:0 | +4 | 8 |
| 9 |  Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 8 |
| 10 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:3 | +3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:1 | +8 | 7 |
| 13 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | +6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 7 |
| 17 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 7 |
| 18 |  Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 7 |
| 19 |  England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | +8 | 6 |
| 20 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 6 |
| 21 |  Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 |
| 22 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | +1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 24 |  Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 25 |  Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 5 |
| 26 |  Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 5 |
| 27 |  Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | +2 | 5 |
| 28 |  Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 |  Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 30 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 31 |  Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 4 |
| 32 |  Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | +2 | 4 |
| 33 |  Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 4 |
| 34 |  Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 35 |  Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:4 | +3 | 4 |
| 36 |  Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 4 |
| 37 |  Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 38 |  Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | -9 | 3 |
| 39 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 40 |  Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 41 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 42 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 43 |  Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 2 |
| 44 |  Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 2 |
| 45 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
| 46 |  Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 47 |  Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 1 |
| 48 |  Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 1 |
| 49 |  North Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:7 | -7 | 0 |
| 50 |  San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:14 | -14 | 0 |
| 51 |  Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | -5 | 0 |
| 52 |  Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
| 53 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:13 | -10 | 0 |
| 54 |  Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 |
Malta vs Gibraltar Prediction (Oct 1)
The Malta vs Gibraltar prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Oct 1, 2026, at Ta Qali National Stadium points to a clear home victory. Malta enters as the overwhelming favorite with a 76% win probability, backed by dominant head-to-head results and bookmakers' odds as low as 1.29.
Team Form
Malta's last five matches show a mixed run of three wins followed by two defeats:
- Sep 27, 2026: Malta 2-0 Liechtenstein (Friendly International)
- Sep 24, 2026: Andorra 1-2 Malta (UEFA Nations League)
- Jun 5, 2026: Azerbaijan 0-2 Malta (Friendly International)
- Jun 1, 2026: Slovakia 2-1 Malta (Friendly International)
- Mar 31, 2026: Luxembourg 3-0 Malta (UEFA Nations League)
Gibraltar's recent form includes two draws, two wins, and one loss:
- Sep 27, 2026: Gibraltar 0-0 Andorra (UEFA Nations League)
- Sep 23, 2026: Gibraltar 0-0 Sao Tome and Principe (Friendly International)
- Jun 6, 2026: Gibraltar 4-1 Cayman Islands (Friendly International)
- Jun 3, 2026: Gibraltar 4-0 British Virgin Islands (Friendly International)
- Mar 31, 2026: Latvia 1-0 Gibraltar (UEFA Nations League)
Malta's wins came against similar or lower-ranked European sides, while Gibraltar's victories were against non-European opponents. The loss to Latvia highlights Gibraltar's struggles against UEFA teams.
Head-to-Head Record
Malta and Gibraltar have faced each other twice, both in friendly internationals. Malta won 1-0 on Sep 6, 2023, and 2-0 on Oct 7, 2020. Gibraltar has yet to score a goal in this fixture, and Malta holds a perfect record of 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
League Table Positions
The provided UEFA Nations League standings do not include Malta or Gibraltar among the top 12 teams overall. Historically, Malta occupies a higher position in FIFA rankings and has more experience against stronger European opposition, while Gibraltar often competes in the lower tiers of the competition.
Win Probability: Malta or Gibraltar?
Malta has a 76% chance of winning, the draw is at 17%, and Gibraltar has a 7% chance. These probabilities are derived from the bookmakers' odds (home 1.29, draw 5.76, away 13.50), normalized to remove the margin, and adjusted for Malta's home advantage, superior head-to-head record, and Gibraltar's weak away form against European teams. The data strongly supports a Malta victory.
Odds & Match Prediction
The best available odds for this match show a Malta win at 1.29, a draw at 5.76, and a Gibraltar win at 13.50. Bookmakers see Malta as the clear favorite, and the stats reinforce that view. Based on all available data, our Malta vs Gibraltar prediction is a home win for Malta.
Malta vs Gibraltar โ FAQ
- Who will win Malta vs Gibraltar?
- Malta is the strong favorite with a 76% win probability. The draw has a 17% chance, while Gibraltar's chances are just 7%. This is based on odds, head-to-head dominance, and recent form.
- What is the win probability for Malta?
- Malta has a 76% chance of winning. This high probability reflects their home advantage, two previous wins over Gibraltar without conceding, and bookmakers' odds of 1.29.
- When is the Malta vs Gibraltar match?
- The match is on Oct 1, 2026, at 19:45 local time. It will be played at Ta Qali National Stadium in Attard, as part of the UEFA Nations League.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The odds for a Malta win are as low as 1.29, the draw is priced at 5.76, and a Gibraltar win is at 13.50. These odds indicate a very high implied probability for a home victory.
- What is the head-to-head record between Malta and Gibraltar?
- Malta has won both previous meetings: 1-0 in 2023 and 2-0 in 2020. Gibraltar has not scored a single goal against Malta in those two matches.