Gifu - Renofa Yamaguchi prediction 3 October 2026

This Gifu vs Renofa Yamaguchi prediction previews the J3 League match on Oct 3, 2026, at 06:00 (UTC+1). Based on recent form, head-to-head records, and league positions, Renofa Yamaguchi enter as slight favourites with a 40% win probability. Gifu have a 30% chance, while the draw is rated at 30%.

Team Form

Gifu's recent results have been mixed and indicate a dip in confidence. In their last five matches across all competitions, they recorded one win, one draw, and three defeats (W,L,L,L,D). The solitary victory came in a thrilling 4-3 away win at Kamatamare Sanuki on Sep 26. Defensively, Gifu have kept only one clean sheet in that run, conceding in four of the five games. On home soil this J3 League season, Gifu have a solid but short record: played 3, won 2, lost 1, with 11 goals scored and just 2 conceded, showing they can be formidable at their own ground.

Renofa Yamaguchi are in much stronger form. Their last five outings produced three wins, one draw, and one loss (D,W,W,W,L). The only defeat was a League Cup reverse against Fujieda MYFC, while their league form has been outstanding: a 2-2 home draw with Sagamihara, a 2-1 away victory at Zweigen Kanazawa, a 2-0 home win over TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma, and a 3-0 demolition of Gainare Tottori on the road. Away in the league this season, Renofa have 2 wins and 2 losses from four fixtures, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5.

Head-to-Head Record

History favours Renofa Yamaguchi. In 13 previous meetings, Renofa have won 5 times, Gifu have won only twice, and 6 matches ended in a draw. The most recent five encounters (all in J2 League between 2018 and 2019) reinforce this trend: Renofa recorded three wins (0-4, 4-1, 4-1) and two draws (both 1-1 at Gifu). Gifu have not beaten Renofa in any of those last five clashes, and at home they have only managed stalemates.

League Table Positions

In the overall J3 League standings, Renofa Yamaguchi sit 4th with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; goal difference 11-7). Gifu are 6th with 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses; 19-8 goal difference). Despite the close points total, Gifu’s home form is promising (2-0-1, 11-2), whereas Renofa’s away record is balanced (2-0-2, 6-5). The numbers suggest a contest where Gifu’s home efficiency meets a Renofa side that has been clinical on their travels.

Win Probability: Gifu or Renofa Yamaguchi?

After weighing all available data—form, head-to-head history, league standing, and home/away splits—we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• Gifu win: 30%
• Draw: 30%
• Renofa Yamaguchi win: 40%

Renofa’s superior form, with three wins from their last four league games, and a dominant H2H record are the main drivers behind their edge. Gifu’s strong home scoring potential (11 goals in 3 home league matches) keeps them in contention, but the lack of a recent victory over Renofa limits their probability. The high draw likelihood reflects the two 1-1 scores when these sides last met in Gifu.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific bookmaker odds were available for this fixture, so all probabilities are derived from statistical analysis. Based on the numbers, Renofa Yamaguchi are the most likely winners. The Gifu vs Renofa Yamaguchi prediction points to an away victory or possibly a score draw. Given Gifu’s defensive resilience at home and Renofa’s attacking form on the road, the match is expected to be tight, with a 1-1 or 1-2 outcome appearing most realistic.