Moreirense - Gil Vicente prediction 9 October 2026

Gil Vicente vs Moreirense prediction: the Primeira Liga match on October 9, 2026, at 18:45 sees Gil Vicente as the slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while the draw carries 37% and Moreirense 25%. Bookmakers' odds reflect a tight contest, but recent head-to-head and league positions give the visitors a narrow edge.

Team Form: Moreirense and Gil Vicente Recent Results

Moreirense's last five matches show a mixed form: D, W, L, L, W. They drew 1-1 away at Vitoria Guimaraes, beat Maritimo 3-1 at home, suffered a heavy 0-4 home loss to Benfica, lost 1-2 at Porto, and won 1-0 at Casa Pia. Gil Vicente's recent form: D, L, L, D, W. They drew 1-1 at Maritimo, lost 1-3 away to Benfica, lost 0-1 at home to Academico Viseu, drew 0-0 at Famalicao, and beat Casa Pia 2-0 at home. Both sides have two wins in their last five, but Gil Vicente's defense has been slightly more solid, conceding only 5 goals compared to Moreirense's 8.

Head-to-Head Record: Gil Vicente vs Moreirense

In the overall head-to-head, Moreirense have 7 wins, 5 draws, and Gil Vicente 3 wins. However, the last five meetings paint a different picture: Gil Vicente won 2-1 away on Feb 7, 2026, Gil Vicente won 2-0 at home on Aug 29, 2025, Moreirense won 1-0 away on Apr 6, 2025, Gil Vicente won 1-0 at home in a Cup match on Jan 12, 2025, and Moreirense won 3-2 at home on Nov 8, 2024. So recent encounters are evenly split, but Gil Vicente have won three of the last five. The most recent clash ended in a 2-1 away win for Gil Vicente.

League Table Positions

As of now, Gil Vicente sit 8th in the Primeira Liga with 8 points from 6 games (2W, 2D, 2L, GF 5, GA 5). Moreirense are outside the top 12, indicating a lower league standing and a struggled start to the season. Gil Vicente's home record is strong (5th in the home table with 7 pts from 4 home games), but this match is away. Their away form (3 draws, 1 loss in 4 away games) shows resilience, while Moreirense's home form is mixed: a big win over Maritimo, but a heavy loss to Benfica.

Gil Vicente vs Moreirense Win Probability

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head, and table positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• Moreirense win: 25%
• Draw: 37%
• Gil Vicente win: 38%

Bookmakers' odds average around 3.34 for a Moreirense home win, 2.25 for the draw, and 2.62 for a Gil Vicente away win. The implied probabilities from the odds show a high chance of a draw (around 40-43%), but we have adjusted slightly downward given Gil Vicente's superior league position and recent H2H edge. Gil Vicente is the more likely winner, though the margin is slim. The draw remains a very likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Selected bookmaker odds for this match (1X2):

• Moreirense: 3.25 to 3.40
• Draw: 2.00 to 3.20
• Gil Vicente: 2.50 to 2.75

Betting tips: the odds indicate uncertainty, with the draw priced as low as 2.00 by some bookmakers, highlighting that a stalemate is considered a strong possibility. Our prediction: a draw or a narrow Gil Vicente win. Based on the stats, a "double chance" bet on Gil Vicente or draw could offer value. However, always gamble responsibly.