UD Santarem - Gil Vicente prediction 14 October 2026

UD Santarem vs Gil Vicente prediction for the Cup match on Oct 14, 2026. Based on the latest odds and team form, Gil Vicente is the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while UD Santarem has just a 10% chance of causing an upset.

Team Form

UD Santarem's recent form shows three wins followed by two losses. In their last five matches, they recorded a 3-0 home victory over Lusitano Ginasio Clube Evora on Oct 9, a 5-0 home thrashing of Merelinense in the Cup on Sep 20, and a 2-1 away win at Louletano on Sep 12. However, they then lost 0-1 at home to Caldas on Sep 4 and suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat away to CF Os Belenenses on Aug 22. The team plays in the Tercera Liga, Portugal's third tier.

Gil Vicente, competing in the Primeira Liga, have had mixed results: a 1-0 away win at Moreirense on Oct 9, a 1-1 home draw with Maritimo on Sep 19, a 3-1 defeat at Benfica on Sep 13, a 0-1 home loss to Academico Viseu on Sep 6, and a 0-0 draw at Famalicao on Aug 30. Their form is inconsistent, but they face lower-league opposition here.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between UD Santarem and Gil Vicente. This will be their first competitive meeting, making it a fresh matchup with no prior results to analyze.

Win Probability: UD Santarem or Gil Vicente?

Based on the odds, team form, and the significant gap in league levels, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Gil Vicente has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and UD Santarem has a 10% chance. The implied probabilities from the first set of odds (6.80, 2.28, 1.82) are 14.7% for a home win, 43.9% for a draw, and 54.9% for an away win. After removing the bookmaker margin and adjusting for the teams' recent performances and the fact that Gil Vicente plays two divisions higher, we arrive at these final figures. The bookmakers' odds heavily favor the away side, and Gil Vicente's top-flight experience gives them a clear edge despite their recent inconsistent form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the odds around 6.80 for a UD Santarem home win, 2.28 for a draw, and 1.82 for a Gil Vicente away victory. The best odds available for a UD Santarem win are as high as 7.50, while Gil Vicente's win odds go as low as 1.43. The draw odds range from 2.28 to 4.00. These odds imply a high likelihood of an away win or a draw. Our prediction: Gil Vicente is the most probable winner, but the draw cannot be ruled out given the odds and the cup competition's unpredictable nature. UD Santarem would need a significant upset to advance.