Gintra Universitetas Women - MFA Zalgiris Women prediction 23 September 2026

Looking for a Gintra Universitetas Women vs MFA Zalgiris Vilnius Women prediction? The A Lyga Women match on Sep 23 at 16:30 sees home side Gintra Universitetas Women as the favourite, with a 52% chance of victory according to our analysis of odds, form, and head-to-head data.

Team Form

Gintra Universitetas Women come into this match with mixed results: W, L, W, L, W in their last five. They thumped Banga Women 7-3 on September 9, lost 3-5 to Sturm Graz in the Europa Cup, and edged FK Zalgiris Women 1-0 away on August 30. Another Europa Cup defeat (1-2 at Sturm Graz) and a 5-0 friendly win over Flora Tallinn complete the sequence. The side is dynamic but inconsistent at the back.

MFA Zalgiris Vilnius Women, meanwhile, are in strong scoring form with four wins from five (W, L, W, W, W). They demolished Banga Women 9-0 on September 20, fell 1-2 at home to FK Zalgiris Women on Sep 13, then recorded clean-sheet victories over FA Siauliai (2-0), FK Transinvest (4-1) and Kauno Rajono FA (4-1). Their attack looks potent.

Head-to-Head Record

Gintra Universitetas Women have historically dominated this fixture. In 30 overall meetings, they have 23 wins, 2 draws, and MFA Zalgiris Vilnius Women have won only 5 times. The last five encounters (including one friendly) show Gintra winning three, a single Zalgiris win, and one draw. The most recent league contest ended 1-1 in May 2026. Gintra won the other league games: 1-0 at home in March 2026 and 2-0 away in October 2025.

Win Probability: Gintra Universitetas Women or MFA Zalgiris Vilnius Women?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as: Gintra Universitetas Women 52%, draw 26%, MFA Zalgiris Vilnius Women 22%. The starting point was the bookmaker odds of 1.95 (home), 2.60 (draw), and 4.75 (away), which carry an implied probability of 46%, 35%, and 19% after removing the margin. We adjusted these numbers upward for the home side due to their overwhelming head-to-head record (77% win rate historically) and home advantage, while also recognizing Zalgiris' better recent form. Gintra Universitetas Women remain the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current 1X2 odds are: home win 1.95, draw 2.60, away win 4.75. Bookmakers clearly rate Gintra Universitetas Women as the favourite. Based on the stats, our prediction leans toward a home victory, but the draw cannot be ruled out given Zalgiris' strong attacking displays. A low-scoring Gintra win or a score draw are the most probable outcomes.