Gremio Novorizontino SP - Goias GO prediction 2 October 2026

Gremio Novorizontino SP vs Goias GO prediction: the hosts are strong favorites to win this Serie B clash on October 2, 2026. Based on odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Gremio Novorizontino SP has a 55% chance of winning, compared to only 20% for Goias GO, with a 25% probability of a draw.

Team Form

Gremio Novorizontino SP’s last five matches show a mixed but improving trend: D, L, D, W, W. They most recently played a 0-0 home draw against Sao Bernardo SP on September 25, after a 2-1 away defeat to Ceara CE and a 1-1 home draw with Cuiaba MT. Before that, they recorded two convincing wins — 3-1 away to Botafogo SP and 3-1 home to Avai SC. At home, their last three results are D, D, W, with the only win coming in the most recent home fixture.

Goias GO come into this match in distinctly weak form: L, W, W, L, L. Their last five included a 0-1 home loss to Atletico Goianiense GO on September 26, a 2-1 home win against Avai SC, and a 3-1 away win at Botafogo SP. However, they followed that with two straight defeats — 0-2 away to Vila Nova GO and 0-1 home to Fortaleza CE. Just one win in three away matches in this stretch underlines their travel vulnerability.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between these sides show a balanced overall record — 2 wins each and 1 draw. However, the most recent encounter on June 11, 2026, saw Gremio Novorizontino SP thrash Goias GO 4-0 away from home. In the fixture before that, Goias GO won 1-0 at home in November 2025, while Gremio Novorizontino SP won 1-0 at home in July 2025. The only draw in the series came in March 2019 (1-1). The heavy margin of the latest result gives the hosts a significant psychological edge.

League Table Positions

In the Serie B overall standings, Gremio Novorizontino SP sits 2nd with 51 points from 30 matches (14 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses), having scored 49 goals and conceded just 27. Goias GO is 11th with 42 points (12 wins, 6 draws, 12 losses), with 30 goals for and 36 against. The home table highlights Gremio Novorizontino SP’s strength: 4th with 28 points from 15 matches (8 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, 23 goals for, 14 against). Goias GO does not appear in the top eight of the away table, indicating a poor away record with fewer than 19 points. The gap in quality, especially on home soil, is substantial.

Win Probability: Gremio Novorizontino SP or Goias GO?

We calculate the win probability as follows: Gremio Novorizontino SP has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Goias GO has a 20% chance. These figures are derived from the inverse of the best available bookmaker odds (home 1.67, draw 2.10, away 5.00), normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted upward for the home side due to their superior league position, strong home record, and the 4-0 head-to-head victory in June, while Goias GO’s poor form and weak away stats lower their share.

Gremio Novorizontino SP vs Goias GO Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers firmly back the hosts, with home win odds ranging from 1.60 to 1.67, draw odds between 2.10 and 2.15, and an away win as high as 5.25. The odds reflect Gremio Novorizontino SP’s status as the clear favorite. Based on the stats, our analysis indicates a home victory is the most probable outcome, with the chance of a draw being the next most likely scenario.