Gosport Borough - Poole Town prediction 7 October 2026

The Gosport Borough vs Poole Town prediction for October 7, 2026, points to an away win, with Poole Town holding a 40% chance of victory. This Southern League Premier Division fixture kicks off at 19:45, and bookmakers see the visitors as narrow favorites based on recent form and head-to-head dominance.

Team Form

Gosport Borough's last five matches show inconsistency: two draws, two wins, and one defeat (D, D, W, L, W). Their most recent outing was a 1-1 home draw against Bracknell Town on September 30. Before that, they drew 1-1 at Basingstoke Town and beat Taunton Town 3-1 at home. A 1-0 loss at Sholing and a 4-2 home win over Malvern Town complete the picture. While they have picked up points, only one clean sheet in five hints at defensive vulnerabilities.

Poole Town arrive in stronger form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five (W, W, D, W, L). They beat Evesham United 3-1 at home on October 3, won 3-1 at Chertsey Town, and drew 0-0 at home with Wimborne Town. A 1-0 win at Havant & Waterlooville and a 2-0 loss at Plymouth Parkway round off the sequence. Notably, Poole have won three of their last four away matches, scoring seven goals in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Poole Town, who have won 6 of the 9 previous meetings, with Gosport Borough winning 3 and no draws. The most recent clash on March 21, 2026, saw Gosport win 1-0 at home. However, Poole won the two prior encounters: 1-0 away to Gosport in November 2025 and a convincing 3-0 away victory in the FA Cup in September 2025. The trend suggests Poole often find a way to win this fixture, especially on the road.

League Table Positions

In the Southern League Premier Division standings, Poole Town sit 4th with 18 points from 9 matches (6 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses), scoring 14 and conceding 11. Gosport Borough are outside the top 12 overall. The away standings highlight Poole's strength: they are ranked 1st with 12 points from 5 away games (4 wins, 1 loss), scoring 9 and conceding 6. Gosport's home form is not among the top 8, indicating they have struggled to impose themselves at their own ground.

Win Probability: Gosport Borough or Poole Town?

Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the win probabilities are: Gosport Borough 28%, draw 32%, Poole Town 40%. The calculation starts from the inverse of the bookmaker odds (home 3.10, draw 2.30, away 2.75), normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted downward for Gosport due to their lower table position and weaker home record, and upward for Poole thanks to their top away form and historical edge. Poole Town are the more likely winner, but a draw is also a significant possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this match. Some price a home win at 3.10, a draw at 2.30, and an away win at 2.75; others have Gosport at 2.62, the draw at 3.45, and Poole at 2.22. These odds reflect Poole Town as the favorite. Taking all factors into account, the stats point to an away victory or a draw. Poole Town's strong away record and dominance in head-to-head meetings make them the team most likely to take all three points, but Gosport's recent home win in this fixture shows they cannot be discounted entirely.