Burgos CF - Granada CF prediction 12 October 2026

The Burgos CF vs Granada CF prediction for this Segunda Division clash on Oct 12 at 15:15 points towards a tight contest with Burgos CF having a slight edge. Based on the latest stats and odds, the data suggests a competitive fixture at El Plantío. Our Burgos CF vs Granada CF match prediction indicates a higher win probability for the home team, who have been in better recent form.

Team Form

Burgos CF enters this match in strong shape. Their last five results in the Segunda Division are L, W, W, W, D. In their most recent match on Oct 3, they lost 2-1 away to Almeria. Before that, they secured a 1-0 home win over Eldense, beat Las Palmas 2-1 on the road, defeated AD Ceuta 3-1 at home, and drew 0-0 away to Real Oviedo. This run shows solid consistency, especially at home.

Granada CF's form is more inconsistent. Their last five results read W, L, L, D, L. Their latest outing was a 3-2 victory away to Real Sociedad B on Oct 4. Prior to that, they lost 3-2 at home to FC Andorra, were beaten 3-2 by Leganes away, drew 1-1 at home against Albacete, and lost 3-0 at Eibar. Defensive lapses have been a concern, conceding nine goals in these four matches.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent history between these two sides is evenly balanced. In the last five meetings, Burgos CF has one win, Granada CF has two wins, and two matches ended in a draw. The most recent encounter was on May 16, when Granada CF, playing at home, lost 1-0 to Burgos CF. The fixture before that on Sep 22 ended in a 1-1 draw at Burgos CF. Back on Jan 10, they played out a 0-0 stalemate. Historically, the head-to-head record shows no clear dominance by either side, with both teams finding it tough to secure back-to-back wins.

League Table Positions

In the overall Segunda standings, Burgos CF sits in 8th position with 14 points from 8 matches, having scored 12 goals and conceded 9. Granada CF is just behind in 9th place with 11 points from 8 games, with a goal record of 13 scored and 13 conceded. At home this season, Burgos CF has been formidable, taking 10 points from 4 matches and remaining unbeaten with three wins and a draw. Granada CF's away form places them 4th in the away table, with 7 points from 5 games, including two wins, one draw, and two defeats. The compact standings mean a win could significantly boost either side's position.

Win Probability: Burgos CF or Granada CF?

Calculating the win probability based on the inverse of the available odds, adjusted for recent form, the head-to-head record, and the home advantage, we arrive at the following percentages: Burgos CF has a 41% chance of winning, the draw is at 34%, and Granada CF has a 25% chance. The bookmakers' average odds, with the margin removed, position Burgos CF as the favorite, and their superior recent form and unbeaten home record reinforce this. Granada CF's inconsistent defensive displays lower their likelihood of an away victory. Therefore, Burgos CF is more likely to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers present a close betting picture for this Segunda Division fixture. The best available odds for a Burgos CF victory are 2.75, a draw is priced at 2.05, and an away win for Granada CF is at 3.10. Other bookmakers offer similar lines, confirming the home side as the marginal favorite. The low odds on the draw reflect the competitive nature of this match. Based on the stats and the calculated probabilities, the most probable match outcome is a home win for Burgos CF, though a draw is a strong second possibility.