Nepean FC - Granville Rage prediction 28 August 2026

Our Nepean FC vs Granville Rage prediction for the NSW League 2 match on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 UTC sees Granville Rage as the favorite with a 45% win probability. Nepean FC, despite playing at home, has a 25% chance, while the draw is rated at 30%.

Team Form

Nepean FC enters this match in dreadful form, having lost their last five league games. Their defensive record is alarming, conceding 4+ goals in each defeat:

• Aug 14: Nepean FC 3-5 Hawkesbury City SC (L)
• Aug 8: Sydney University 4-1 Nepean FC (L)
• Jul 31: Nepean FC 2-4 Bonnyrigg White Eagles (L)
• Jul 17: Nepean FC 4-5 Fraser Park (L)
• Jul 3: Nepean FC 2-4 Mounties Wanderers (L)

Granville Rage, on the other hand, has been far more consistent, collecting two wins, two draws, and just one loss in their last five outings:

• Aug 15: Granville Rage 1-2 South Coast Flame (L)
• Aug 6: Granville Rage 2-1 Fraser Park (W)
• Jul 18: Granville Rage 0-0 Hawkesbury City SC (D)
• Jul 11: Parramatta Eagles 2-3 Granville Rage (W)
• Jul 4: Granville Rage 1-1 Dunbar Rovers (D)

Head-to-Head Record

The last four meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with two wins apiece and no draws:

• May 16, 2026: Granville Rage 1-2 Nepean FC
• Jul 8, 2025: Nepean FC 2-5 Granville Rage
• Mar 22, 2025: Granville Rage 1-0 Nepean FC
• Mar 3, 2023: Nepean FC 3-1 Granville Rage

While Nepean FC won the most recent encounter, Granville Rage has taken two of the last three, giving them a slight psychological edge.

Win Probability: Nepean FC or Granville Rage?

Based on the latest odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Nepean FC win: 25%
• Draw: 30%
• Granville Rage win: 45%

Granville Rage’s superior form (W2 D2 L1 vs. L5 for Nepean) is the main factor tipping the scales. While Nepean FC enjoys home advantage, their five-match losing streak and leaky defense make them vulnerable. The odds also imply Granville Rage as the favorite, and our adjustment reflects the form disparity.

Nepean FC vs Granville Rage Odds & Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match closely. Average odds from five bookmakers show Nepean FC at 2.83, the draw at 2.91, and Granville Rage at 2.41. Some bookies even offer Granville Rage as low as 2.10, indicating strong confidence in an away win.

Our prediction: Granville Rage to win. The combination of Nepean FC’s poor form and Granville Rage’s steadier performances makes the away side the most likely winner. A draw is also a plausible outcome, but the value lies with Granville Rage at odds around 2.40.