Green Gully Cavaliers - St Albans Saints prediction 21 August 2026

The Green Gully Cavaliers vs St Albans Saints prediction for August 21, 2026, points to a tight NPL Victoria contest at Green Gully Reserve. Bookmakers and recent form give St Albans Saints a slight edge with a 35% win probability, but a draw is equally likely at 35%, leaving Green Gully Cavaliers at 30%.

Team Form

Green Gully Cavaliers come into this match with inconsistent results: L, D, D, W, L in their last five. A heavy 4-1 loss at Oakleigh Cannons was followed by a 2-2 draw at Preston Lions and a goalless home stalemate with Dandenong City. They beat Dandenong Thunder 3-1 at home but then lost 1-3 at home to Altona Magic. Only one win in five underlines their struggle for consistency.

St Albans Saints show a slightly steadier run: D, L, W, D, D. They drew 1-1 at home with Bentleigh Greens, lost 0-2 at South Melbourne, then beat Hume City 3-2 at home. Away draws at Avondale FC (1-1) and at home 2-2 with Caroline Springs George Cross complete the picture. With three draws in five, they are hard to beat but lack a cutting edge.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Green Gully Cavaliers dominate this fixture with 6 wins, 2 draws, and only 2 St Albans Saints victories. The last meeting on May 8, 2026, saw St Albans win 1-0 at home. Before that, a 2-2 draw in July 2025 and a 2-1 away win for Green Gully in April 2025. The H2H record suggests Green Gully often rise to the occasion, but the most recent result went the other way.

League Table Positions

St Albans Saints sit 10th in the NPL Victoria standings with 28 points from 24 matches (7 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses). Green Gully Cavaliers are not in the top 12, indicating a lower league position. This gives St Albans a clear advantage in terms of season-long performance, though Green Gully’s home ground could level the playing field.

Win Probability: Green Gully or St Albans?

After removing the bookmaker margin from the average odds and adjusting for head-to-head history and home advantage, the win probabilities are: Green Gully Cavaliers 30%, draw 35%, St Albans Saints 35%. The draw and an away win are equally the most likely outcomes. St Albans’ higher league standing and slightly better recent form are balanced by Green Gully’s historical dominance and home pitch. This match is too close to call a clear winner, but St Albans Saints hold a marginal edge.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average pre-match odds: Green Gully Cavaliers win at 3.08, the draw at 2.40, and St Albans Saints win at 2.29. Bookmakers see St Albans as the favourite, reflected in the lowest odds. Based on the stats, the most probable outcomes are a draw or a narrow away win. Green Gully’s home advantage and superior H2H record could force a share of the points, making the draw a strong betting consideration.