Greenock Morton - Queens Park prediction 17 October 2026

Our Greenock Morton vs Queens Park prediction for this Scottish Championship match on Oct 17 at 15:00 sees Greenock Morton as the favorite with a 40% win probability. Both teams are struggling at the bottom of the table, but home advantage and a superior head-to-head record give Greenock Morton the edge.

Team Form

Greenock Morton's recent form is poor, with four losses and one win in their last five matches. That sole victory came away at Arbroath on Oct 10, ending a four-game losing streak. Before that, they suffered defeats against Raith Rovers (1-2), Inverness CT (0-2), Dunfermline (0-1), and Livingston (1-4).

Queens Park are in even worse shape, losing four of their last five. Their only win in that period was against Greenock Morton themselves on Sep 5. Since then, they have lost to Dunfermline (0-2), Ayr United (0-2), Arbroath (1-2), and Raith Rovers (0-2).

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 16 meetings, Greenock Morton have won 8, Queens Park have won 3, and 5 have ended in draws. The most recent encounter on Sep 5, 2026, saw Queens Park win 2-1 at home. However, Greenock Morton won the previous home fixture 2-1 in Dec 2025. The overall H2H record strongly favors the home side.

League Table Positions

Both teams are in the relegation zone. Greenock Morton are 9th with 4 points from 10 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 8 losses), scoring 7 and conceding 18. Queens Park are 10th with 4 points from 9 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 7 losses), scoring 4 and conceding 15. Greenock Morton's home record shows 4 points from 5 games, while Queens Park's away form is not listed in the top 8, indicating significant struggles on the road.

Win Probability: Greenock Morton or Queens Park?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Greenock Morton has a 40% chance of winning, the draw has a 35% chance, and Queens Park has a 25% chance. The odds imply a tight contest, but Greenock Morton's historical dominance in this fixture and home advantage push their probability higher. Queens Park's poor away form and low scoring output reduce their chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market show Greenock Morton as the favorite, with best home odds around 2.55, the draw at 2.05, and an away win at 2.92. The low draw odds reflect the expectation of a close, low-scoring game between two out-of-form sides. Based on the stats, our Greenock Morton vs Queens Park prediction leans towards a home win or a draw, with under 2.5 total goals likely.