AC Boise - Greenville Triumph prediction 3 October 2026

AC Boise vs Greenville Triumph prediction: the USL League One clash on October 3, 2026, at 20:00 local time heavily favors the home side. AC Boise enter the match with a 65% win probability, while Greenville Triumph, mired in a five-game losing streak, have just a 15% chance. The draw is rated at 20%.

Team Form

AC Boise's last five results: L, D, D, W, W. They lost 1-2 at Corpus Christi on Sep 27, drew 2-2 at Spokane Velocity on Sep 21, drew 1-1 at home to Charlotte Independence on Sep 17, beat New York Cosmos 2-1 at home on Sep 12, and won 2-0 at FC Naples on Sep 6. That's two wins, two draws, one loss. At home this season, they have won 8 of 14, scoring 21 and conceding only 14—a solid defensive record.

Greenville Triumph's last five results: L, L, L, L, L. They lost 1-3 at home to Union Omaha on Sep 27, were thrashed 0-6 at Sarasota Paradise on Sep 20, lost 0-1 at home to Corpus Christi on Sep 16, fell 1-3 at home to Fort Wayne on Sep 13, and lost 1-3 at Chattanooga Red Wolves on Sep 6. They have conceded 16 goals in those five defeats, averaging over three goals against per game. Their away form is dire, with no points from recent travels.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting between these teams took place on July 30, 2026, in USL League One. Greenville Triumph won 3-2 at home. That narrow victory gives them a historical advantage, but it came when AC Boise were the away side and before Greenville's dramatic collapse in form.

League Table Positions

AC Boise are 5th in the USL League One standings with 46 points (13W, 7D, 8L), scoring 44 and conceding 39. Their home record ranks 5th in the league, with 27 points from 14 games. Greenville Triumph do not appear in the top 12, suggesting they are in the lower reaches of the table. Their away form is poor, and they are not among the top eight away sides.

Win Probability: AC Boise or Greenville Triumph?

After analyzing all available data, AC Boise has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 20%, and Greenville Triumph has a 15% chance. The home side's solid form, strong home record, and Greenville's catastrophic run of five straight losses—with heavy scorelines—make AC Boise the overwhelming favorite. The only H2H result went the other way, but that was a close game at Greenville's ground and does not outweigh the current evidence. AC Boise's defense, conceding just 1.0 goals per game at home, should be able to contain a Greenville attack that has struggled on the road. Therefore, AC Boise are clearly the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this match are not yet available from bookmakers. When they appear, AC Boise will be priced as strong favorites. Our prediction, based on the stats, is a home win for AC Boise.